Tropics Showing Signs Of Life, Not Done With Rains Here

 After watching last night's & this morning's weather programs showing models drenching us with more rain, plus NWS issuing a new Flash Flood watch, we decided to cancel our fishing trip.  Obviously the models overplayed the storms as we have seen way more sunshine and fewer showers allowing us to warm back into the mid-upper 80s.

Even though there is less coverage today, it is concentrated once again over south Mississippi where most rivers are out of their banks flooding many roadways.  Our current monthly rain total in Kenner is 9.08" and we certainly should crack the top ten wettest if not today, then tomorrow.

While most of us have escaped the rain so far today, yet another upper system will approach late Wednesday into Thursday increasing rain chances again.  Eventually, the persistent upper trough over the western 2/3rds of the nation should lift northward allowing our rain chances to get back to typical summertime (30-40%) coverage.

At 2 pm, radars are seeing clusters of storms from Texas to the Carolinas with Florida remaining dry.  The only frontal boundary is located far to the north so the triggers for storms are upper disturbances & daytime heating.

It actually is hotter north of the front where the sun is shining.  Low to mid 70 dew points tell me we have reached the awful summer muggy feel over most of the South.   

We have another two days of above normal rain chances before fewer showers are around Friday into the weekend.  Unless we have an upper high over us (and that's not happening in the next 7-10 days), it will rain somewhere each day across SE LA/MS.  That's basic summertime.  Now to the Tropics.  I indicated yesterday there were signs of activity increasing.  Today's satellite views confirm that trend even though NHC isn't talking about it yet.  The CAG (Central America Gyre) is right on schedule.

IF we have any early season Tropical activity, it's usually in the western Caribbean or eastern Gulf and the satellite views show just that.

One reason NHC isn't highlighting these areas is because of strong upper level WSW wind shear that would limit or prevent development.  However, I grabbed these graphics off of Weather Bell Analytics' web page (I'm a subscriber)with Joe Bastardi. 

The top view is the Euro Tropical Development chances during the next 10-14 days with the bottom showing low pressure (blue colors) across the North Central Gulf.  Computer models are hinting at possible formation in the 9-12 day time frame.  It's why you should go to bobbreck.com and sign up for my podcast for this coming hurricane season.

Even AccuWeather's site highlights areas (yellow) of greatest possible impacts.  My podcast will enhance my Bob Breck WVUE website giving you what I think and why.  Go sign up and give me a try.  Our next podcast will come out on Thursday recapping my recent vacation trip to New Mexico. It's not always about the weather.  Stay tuned!