We all know the 2026 Hurricane season begins at midnight and the next 4-5 months we'll be on the Tropical Watch each day. Right now all the action is out in the western Pacific (WPAC) with only one Typhoon (Jangmi 85 mph) heading on a track just south of Japan. That should lessen the impacts as most of Japan will be on the weaker side of Jangmi.
NHC is indicating the eastern Pacific (EPAC) is about to get active in the next 3-5 days with a 90% chance (red) for development.
Current satellite view are not impressive, but computer models do develop a storm by late week. In our part of the World we have no issues, but a couple of interesting features to watch. The most interesting is a cold front that has stalled over the Southeast, but will get closer by Tuesday as a secondary surge of cold air comes out of Canada.
There are several features in the Gulf and Caribbean that catch my eye. The first is a strong tropical wave moving over the Western Caribbean with the second being the lingering tropical moisture over the east half of the Gulf.
No model develops anything this week, but IF we are to see any early season development, it often is with a frontal boundary that sags down into the Gulf. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) keeps the core of the heavy rains down over the Gulf for the next 5-7 days.
The GFS valid for Friday morning does bring some of that moisture inland over south Louisiana, but it also hints of a weak low south of Lafayette. The MJO is in the favorable phase (rising motion) so it's something to follow this week.
You can clearly see where the frontal boundary is located. 40s & 50s dew points (good feel air) covers the Ohio Valley into the Northeast while most of the South suffers with dew points 70+. Again today we had a few heavy showers develop.
I had a great view from high up in Copeland Tower looking back towards downtown. That shower spread westward over most of East Bank Jefferson.
Like most summer storms, one block is in sunshine while 2-3 blocks away 1-2" of rain falls in less than an hour. I don't see any major changes until later this week when rain chances could increase depending on that moisture plume down over the Gulf.
My next podcast will focus on our chances for early season hurricane development. Go to bobbreck.com to sign up. Don't forget the FOX 8 Hurricane Special "Weathering the Storm" airs Monday night at 6:30 PM. Stay tuned!
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