Colorado State University updated their 2026 Hurricane outlook yesterday, and it wasn't surprising to see them LOWER/DECREASE their numbers based on the strengthening El Niño out in the Pacific. Remember, I have posted on this blog and in my podcast, I felt the number of named storms might be lower than 10, maybe more like 8. Here's the latest from CSU that FOX Weather had on this morning.
You shouldn't read too much into these outlooks since they cannot predict with any skill the landfall location of any storms that develop. But just having fewer storms means the chances of getting hit decreases. We'll see, but as always, we'll pay attention until those October cold fronts start coming. Back to the Tropics.
NHC still gives a 20% chance for development over the western Gulf later this week. Wave heights tell us there is something churning up the waters, but satellite views confirm NOTHING is developing. The visible view has the low-level center already moving westward & inland over Mexico with a weak surge of tropical moisture into south Texas.
The color IR has ZERO T-Storm with the center and very little out over the Gulf. So why is NHC still hanging on to a 20% chance for development over the NW Gulf? It's because the AI model forecasts that.
Since the AI model was the most accurate last hurricane season, NHC is placing some value in it in case it is correct. Right now, I see the tropical moisture moving into Mexico and not streaming towards the northern Gulf. Our local NWS is sticking to the heavy rain potential for early next week.
The thinking is the tropical moisture would meet the moisture moving southward with a cold front.
My take is the cold frontal boundary will stall well north of Louisiana keeping the heaviest rain threat away. Here's why. The current Water Vapor view has a northerly flow over the Gulf while the wide U.S. view finds mainly a zonal (west to east) flow over much of the country.
How can a front get near us with no dip in the jet stream? Maybe an East Coast trough develops later next week, but I'm not seeing that today. In the short term, Sunday should be like Saturday, hot & humid with a spotty shower.
With dew points well above 70, it doesn't take much to bubble up some storms.
The 7 day forecast indicates we'll turn very wet, but my discussion above should point out the uncertainties in that forecast.
IF the AI model proves to be valid and a disturbance tries to form over the NW Gulf, I'll do a daily podcast update expanding on my daily FB post. To hear & see it, you'll need to go to bobbreck.com and sign up.
For only $2/month, you'll find information that only the little fella can give you through 5 decades of experience. Come join us. Stay tuned!
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