Heavy Rain Event Coming, Which Model Do You Believe?

On their afternoon update, NHC increased the odds for Tropical development along the northern Gulf from 20 to 30%.  They are placing greater value on the AI models rather than the standard GFS & European models.  This will be a good test to see if the AI models are really better since the GFS & Euro models both keep the heavy rain threat to our north & west.  Let's begin with the AI forecast that forms a weak low south of Houston by Wednesday AM.

The AI takes that energy right across SE LA/MS along with the heaviest rains.  It is why NHC has increased their chances along the northern Gulf.

But not all models agree.  We start with the Euro that doesn't develop a low over water and takes the energy well to our north before developing it. The top is valid for Wednesday AM and the bottom is Friday PM.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

The GFS seems to be in agreement with location & timing.

The bottom view is the WPC's 7 day rain totals and they seem to follow the GFS & Euro keeping the heaviest rain totals (4-7"+) from east central Texas across central LA/MS/AL to Georgia.  So as I always do, let's see what the satellite shows us.

The surface low/swirl is inland over Mexico.  Will it come back out over the Gulf as the AI model shows?  I don't see how based on the Water Vapor flow.

I see all of the upper lows moving west to east across the northern states with a zonal (west to east) flow over the South.  That should stall the weakening cold front well north of us agreeing with where the heaviest rain boundary sets up.  Our local NWS office is leaning towards heavy rains north of Lake P.

So the bottom line is our rain chances will be increasing for the coming week.  The farther north you live, the higher the chances for flooding rains.  RIGHT NOW, I don't feel the South Shore has any concerns.  However, IF the AI model proves valid, that could change.  I will plan on doing daily podcasts if that scenario proves correct.  To see and watch those podcasts, you have to become a subscriber.

In the short term, we have no issues.

So let's do our usual pay attention time this week.

A benefit for increased clouds and showers will be less hot temperatures.  Stay tuned!