This is a quick morning post since I've noticed a well defined spin developing over the southern Gulf. This is an upper low, which usually means a hostile environment for tropical development. However, the MJO is in the favorable phase (rising air) and that means we need to pay attention to anything that tries to spin up.
Currently, there are no T-Storms around it and I would suspect any development to be very slow. My guess is NHC might highlight an area over the northern Gulf for low chance (20%) of development in their 2 PM TWO (Tropical Weather Outlook. I'll have my usual post this afternoon at 4 PM and my podcast this week will be focused on the Gulf and early season tropical formation. Stay Tuned!
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