There were no changes on the NHC 7 PM advisory as satellite views show an exposed center as strong WSW upper winds have sheared the taller cloud tops well to the east of the center. Both satellite and radar loops keep PTC # 1 over land with NHC giving it a drift to the NE at 6 mph. Recon aircraft will arrive later tonight with more scheduled for tomorrow. At the moment, all NHC is going on is radar & satellite loops plus surface data reports.
With such strong WSW upper flow over PTC # 1, I can't see this strengthening into a major Tropical Storm. NHC's discussion barely makes it a named storm (Arthur) on Wednesday. (40 mph)
A couple of things to note. All the lightning has been blown well away from the ill-defined center, indicating this system is NOT strengthening. Plus, the heavy rain band that has drenched the North Shore all day has reformed south along our coast. I'm hoping the shear continues and doesn't allow the system to strengthen and keeps it moving quickly, reducing the rain totals the computers are currently forecasting.
Heavy rains will continue to be the main threat through midday on Thursday, with the worst coming after 4 PM tomorrow and noon on Thursday. Friday & the weekend look to be much drier and hotter. I'll do another podcast on Wednesday afternoon, as we should have Tropical Storm Arthur by then, but you must subscribe to see & hear it. Just being a Facebook follower isn't enough. Go to bobbreck.com to sign up. Stay tuned!
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