All of the main computer models develop named storms in the EPAC (Eastern Pacific) this coming week, which is what we expect to happen during an El Nino summer. Right now, satellite views are seeing the beginning of a swirl south of the Mexican Coast moving to the WNW. NHC is giving this area an 90% chance for development during the next 1-2 days.
NHC indicates the Atlantic Basin will stay quiet for the next 7 days. However, One of the AI model runs continues to hint at some development in the NE Gulf in the 7-10 day time frame. the top view is valid for Monday July 20th.
The bottom view is valid for Tuesday July 21st. IF something were to form, we would be on the dry side with little impacts. It's that time of the year when we start paying more attention for Tropical Development . The Saharan Dust Layer (SAL) is still keeping the MDR (Main Development Region) quiet, but note the dust doesn't cover the northern Gulf.
My next podcast will focus on potential close in tropical development during the next 10-14 days. To see & hear my opinions, you'll need to join as a subscriber for $2/month. Go to bobbreck.com and sign up. The short term main concern for the next 1-2 days is the potential for heavy, flooding rainfall along the northern Gulf coast. NWS highlights the dangers.
The WPC's rain totals have the bullseye of heaviest rains away from SE LA/MS. However, we already know that our slow moving daily storms can dump 2-4"+ totals in an hour overwhelming our pumping capacity. That's why NWS is concerned about the next two days. Here's the set up. An upper heat dome covers the Rockies and northern states with a broad upper trough covering the Southeast.
There is an upper low over Kentucky that will move to the East Coast and that will drag down a frontal boundary closer to us.
You can see the 100+ temps over the Rockies where 2 weeks ago they were in the 40s & 50s. Locally, it's our usual daytime heating storms firing off.
Today's storms are more concentrated north of Lake P. However, the leftover cloud cover is keeping most folks less hot.
After Tuesday, we'll see a sharp drop off in rain chances as the upper trough leaves and the heat dome builds over us. Finally,
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