Bertha Weakening, Nearing Mississippi Coast, Not Following NHC Track

 As most of you know, I'm a big believer of interpreting satellite and radar views to see if a storm is following the computer model forecasts.  Watching local and network stations, few (if any) of the broadcasters have mentioned the current jog to the NNW that has brought Bertha near the Mississippi coast far north of where the models are predicting. Let's look at the graphics to show you what I mean.  We begin with the 10 AM advisory.

What I see on this NHC advisory is 1) pressure is rising, 2) forward motion is WNW 3) winds are still kept at 50 MPH, mainly east of the center.  The MS/AL/FL coasts are getting the stronger winds.

IF the current NW motion continues (contrary to NHC track), the worst impacts will stay east of NOLA.  Here's the past track and the newest NHC update.

I actually see the center closer to the Mississippi coast than the green dot has it.

That's confirmed by radar views.  NHC still says Bertha will begin a sharp turn to the WSW shortly, but what if?  What if Bertha goes inland around Biloxi/Gulfport shortly after 1-2 PM?  We should see a rapid decrease in wind speeds and water rises.  Impacts for Louisiana will be much less than for you folks east of the Pearl River.  In fact, the strongest winds will be east of Biloxi.  So what about the Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo? Back to the maps.

Clearly, the main cluster of T-Storms have decoupled from the surface circulation of Bertha moving farther into the Gulf.  Strong storms down there might be where a new center is trying to form?  In fact, a Recon plane is scheduled to investigate that area later this evening.   Bottom line for us, impacts from Bertha will be minimal.  I'll be leaving for the Grand Isle Tarpon rodeo shortly and will try to do a podcast from the island after 4 PM.  To watch it go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  Do NOT subscribe to my Facebook post.  Subscribe at bobbreck.com Stay tuned!