MJO Going Favorable, Daily Storm Chances Going Up

 Back when I was on-air, the terms I used for daily rain chances during the summer were BELOW NORMAL or ABOVE NORMAL.  On a typical summer day, rain coverage was 40-50% so below normal/average was 20-30% and above being 60-80%+.  In the absence of an upper high, it's going to rain somewhere across the Gulf South every day.  Today's example points out the problem/challenge forecasters have.  The predicted 60% coverage was spot on.  However, 75% of the metro population lives in Orleans, Jefferson & St. Bernard where the heaviest rains (2-4") fell causing widespread flooding. Look at the radar views with the time stamp at the bottom.

Most of Kenner & the Metairie lakefront west of the Causeway missed the flooding rains, but you can see who got hammered.  The daily difficulty in pinpointing location is called uncertainty.  We're certain it will rain somewhere, but uncertain where somewhere will be!  I say that because NWS is hyping the heavy rain potential for Sunday & Monday.

50-80% on Sunday and 70-90% for Monday is pretty strong stuff knowing our atmosphere is full of moisture at this time of the year.  Let's pay attention where driving around the next 2 days and avoid the usual flooded underpasses and low spots.  As for the Tropics, the MJO is heading into phase 8 (favorable-rising air) and we need to pay attention for close in development since the MDR is ruled by dry air, upper lows and wind shear.  The Water Vapor view shows us that.

In the short term (3-5 days), nothing will happen over the MDR & Caribbean.  But farther down the road,(7-10 days) there could be some close in development over the NE Gulf and/or along the East Coast.  Why?  One AI model has a weak low SE of the mouth of the River for NEXT Saturday. Also there appears to be an area along the Carolina coasts that could develop.

Hey, that's a week out, but the AI modeling seems to be beating the GFS & European models lately.  I feel like a sportswriter waiting for the beginning of Saint's training camp & preseason games. All we can do is speculate and give opinions.  I'd rather be like Joe Friday on Dragnet..."Just the facts Ma'am"!  So here are the facts. We have several boundaries and clusters of storms in the Tropics.

A well defined upper low in Illinois will be diving towards the East Coast and that will bring a surface frontal boundary near us.  That could focus the heavy rain threat along the northern Gulf for the next several days.  Today's rains were just the usual land/sea boundaries triggering storms.

Later next week, the western heat dome will begin to shift eastward and dry us out.  For today, we're rain cooled.

We have yet to have a prolonged heat wave (2-3+ weeks) this summer and we won't see one this week.  As you drive around the next 2-3 days, pay attention to where you are if you get caught in a heavy downpour.  2 weeks from tonight I will pull someone's name as the winner of the GRAND PRIZE ($10,000) of the Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo.

We have a line up of great bands, food vendors along with the usual kid's games.  If you can't make it down to Grand Isle, you can still register for the Grand Prize by going to tarponrodeo.org.  With only about 2,000 folks that register, your odds of winning are pretty good.  So will I be calling your name? that's up to you.  Stay tuned!