NE Gulf Storm Unlikely, Smokey NE, Major Satellite Outage

Not sure where to begin since there are so many things going on.  To me, the most important is that one of our major weather satellites (GOES-19) failed overnight, and engineers are scrambling to fix the problem.  Satellite animation is key to weather forecasting, as much of the data computer models use comes from the GOES-19 satellite.  

It's like asking a surgeon to operate without seeing an X-Ray or MRI of his/her patient.  There are other satellites we can use, but the GOES-19 is critical in day-to-day forecasting.  But let's try.  It's obvious to me that computer models are struggling to figure out what might happen in the Gulf late this weekend into early next week.  NHC hasn't changed their area for potential development from yesterday.

It's obvious from what satellite views we have that there is NOTHING there yet.  I liked how Bruce Katz downplayed development on FOX 8's 10 PM newscast yesterday.  Today, FOX Weather's Brian Norcross voiced the same theme.  Something might form, but it will be non-tropical (cold core) and just a rainmaker for some.

Brian's concern is one center of low pressure breaks off to the NE, with one staying back to the SW over the Gulf.  He stated it would be more of an upper air feature and not a surface low.  However, models are all over the place with the formation of a surface low.

Bottom line, whatever forms will be a big rainmaker focused south of the LA/MS/AL coasts.  The more likely scenario is that central Florida gets the soaking.

Obviously, with the Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo starting one week from today, we don't want any tropical system in the Gulf.  That will be my focus for the next several days.

It's a basic summertime-looking weather map with most of the nation dealing with warm to hot temperatures and high humidity.  What is different is that the Great Lakes and Northeast are dealing with dense smoke that has been pouring out of Canada.  All the red dots are forest fires.

Air quality is extremely bad over many states, and that's not likely to change for several days. The other big story is the widespread Texas flooding west of San Antonio. 

Fortunately, our rains have turned off for several more days.  Unless something were to form in the NE Gulf and move our way, our main weather issue will be the heat through this weekend.

I think most of us can deal with a little heat after all the recent rains.  As I mentioned, The Tarpon Rodeo begins next Thursday at dawn.  

Go to tarponrodeo.org for more information.  Remember, you could win $10,000 by just registering ($50) and you don't have to fish or be present when I call out your name next Saturday night.  Go sign up.  Stay tuned!