TD 2 Become Bertha, No Major Changes

A Recon Aircraft flying around TD # 2 found 40+ mph gusts on the south side of the circulation, so NHC has named our second storm of 2026 Bertha.  The next track forecast will come out at 10 PM, but there should be no major adjustments expected.  Satellite views as the sun sets indicate a very asymmetric (Lopsided) storm with strong NE upper wind shear blowing all T-Storms south of Bertha's center.

 

The Water Vapor Loop indicates lots of dry air ahead of Bertha's path and that should limit development.  

So the cluster of storms south of Bertha's center should stay well off the LA/MS coasts.  NHC's rain total confirms that thinking.

Unless there is some magical change in direction, some magical drop in upper wind shear, Bertha should not have any major impacts for us.

So why has NHC named this system?  My guess is 1) data from Recon aircraft and 2) increasing wave heights.

The insurance industry is cheering since everyone's Hurricane Deductible now kicks in.  The recent model runs are hinting at a more southern track.

NHC still says a 2-4' storm surge is possible.  Our local NWS office says 1-3' is more likely.  My thinking is dry air plus wind shear wins every time.  Check the 10 PM advisory and again on Tuesday.  Bertha will not become a strong storm.   I'll have another podcast Tuesday PM.  Go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  Stay tuned!