Cristobal Maybe In Atlantic, Euro Crushes Hawaii, MJO Podcast Is Out

Not unexpectedly, the tropical Atlantic MDR is showing signs of life.  In fact, there is a whole wave train coming across Africa that will result in more possible development later this month.  However, 1) we know we are in an El Nino year with strong upper shear, 2) the Saharan Dust layer remains strong and 3) perhaps most importantly, our part of the world in the MJO Phase 6,(sinking air).

There is a cluster of storms over the western Caribbean that should drift into Belize with 3 distinct systems out in the Atlantic.  NHC is highlighting only one with the 2nd being a system way north heading out to sea.

It would be a shame if NHC gives a name to the northern most system, but models are hinting that the southern system should become Cristobal.  OK, even if that happens, look at the gauntlet of hostile environment conditions it will have to struggle through.

My guess is NHC will name it Cristobal, but it will struggle to become much more than what Bertha was for the northern Gulf.  Hopefully, it will bring much needed rains to the Islands & Puerto Rico.  Again, with the MJO in Phase 6, the rising air is over the Pacific and not the Atlantic.

My podcast coming out today is about the MJO and what it is.  To see and hear that podcast, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  The cost is just $24/year or $2/month.  That's the cost of one Power Ball ticket, but you'll feel a winner with each podcast!  

Locally, we have nothing going on except an upper heat dome that will dry us out and allow temps to soar to 95-100 for the next 4-5 days.  By the way, NHC has just designated the two areas out in the Atlantic 92-L & 93-L.   That tells me Cristobal might be named for that northern system that will affect no one.  It's difference in the EPAC.

One model (Euro) hammers all of the Hawaiian Island with heavy rains and strong winds.  If you have travel plans there during the next 5-7 days, you may be impacted.

As you can see, we have some serious heat coming for the next 5-10 days so use common sense if working or playing outdoors.  Stay tuned!