Edouard Coming To NW Gulf? Dolly Not Done Yet?

 Since we remain in the unfavorable (sinking air) phase of the MJO, I'm not expecting any rapid development of the two systems NHC is watching.  They do believe the closed circulation down south of Grand Isle will become a Tropical Depression or Storm (Edouard) before it reaches the upper Texas Coast on Tuesday.  Perhaps you've noticed the increase in winds over us today?  Something is slowly developing down in the Gulf where buoys show we have west winds and a circulation.

Even though we have a surface rotation, there is no concentration of storms around the center. Still, NHC has increased chances for development up to 50%

Wave heights are not increasing much, yet don't be surprised to see NHC make Invest 97-L a Tropical Depression at 4 PM.  Spaghetti plots all take him to the upper Texas coast on Tuesday.  That will keep most of the wind and storm surge away from SE LA/MS.  We will see some rainy/squally periods, but there should be no significant impacts for us.  The upper heat dome will steer Dolly westward and not northward.

Another tropical wave east of Florida may increase our rain chances later this week.  Now for Dolly. There is still something remaining even though at the surface, we no longer have a closed rotation.

She is bringing some welcomed rains to all the Islands including Puerto Rico.  The wave heights indicate Dolly's "DNA" is still there.

Several models do bring whatever is left of Dolly into the Gulf late next week.  No model develops her into more than a strong tropical wave.   I'll have a special podcast this afternoon for my subscribers.

Go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  Let's see if NHC makes 97-L Tropical Depression # 5 at 4 pm.  Stay tuned!