Yesterday I showed you three models that hinted at some kind of tropical development in the MDR (Main Development Region). Today's model runs continue that same theme and NHC has responded by highlighting 2 areas in the Tropical Atlantic that will likely see development.
Both these systems will be fighting the Saharan Dust layer to the north, but it appears they will stay far enough south so that the dust will have less influence. The Euro brings(Cristobal?) to the north east of the islands likely never threatening land areas.
The GFS has two systems taking a more southerly track. The first heads into the strong wind shear across the Caribbean and dissipates, while the second tries to approach the Islands by 8-20.
I go back to what I've always said..."computer models struggle with weaker storms", so let's not read much into solutions 10-14 days away. Remember the strong shear over the Caribbean.
So whatever tries to form out in the MDR will really struggle to get through the upper wind shear. My concern is closer in formation, not coming from the Caribbean.
There are several clusters of disorganized T-Storms, but neither shows any signs of low level rotation. With the MJO currently in phase 6 (sinking air), I really don't think anything will get started until the MJO goes back into phases 8/1 (rising air). My podcast next week will focus on the influence of the MJO to tropical development and why that might be the most important reason/ingredient needed for formation.
If you want to see and hear about the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation), go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber for $2/month. Don't wait until we have another hurricane threat in the Gulf as we enter the most active period (Aug. 15 to Oct. 10th) of the 2026 season. The season is about ready to explode in the Pacific.
The colors correspond to Yellow 20%, Orange 40% and Red 70% There could be a threat for Hawaii later next week. Stay tuned!
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