Yesterday Colorado State chose to keep their prediction numbers unchanged from their July update. However, today NOAA issued an update and they lowered their number of storms based on an increasing El Nino in the Pacific that will increase the upper shear across the Atlantic Basin. They give a range of numbers (quite large I might add) that center on ten, which would be way below the 30 year average of 14.
This information is not included in today's podcast that will go out this afternoon. To hear and see my podcast, go to bobbreck.com and subscribe.
The cost is $2/month to cover the expenses of putting on a podcast and is a bargain to learn what does Bob think? I think this El Nino could be the strongest in modern times.
Not only do we have the strong upper westerly shear, but the Saharan Dust coming off of Africa has been relentless. Couple that with all the TUTT lows and the environment will limit any formation.
There are features to watch. The Caribbean and Gulf are quiet, but there is this tiny swirl east of Florida.
Florida is receiving much needed rainfall while we have seen a few slow moving storms.
Kenner (MSY) got under one of those cooling showers and you can tell coverage was way greater than yesterday. Expect daily storms typical of August through the weekend. stay tuned!
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