Still Waiting On Dolly, Edouard, Heat Dome Weakens, New Podcast Wednesday

As we approach the peak of the Hurricane Season (Sept. 10), the tropical Atlantic continues to struggle to produce any storms.  We all know the Saharan Dust layer has been a factor along with upper shearing winds during this El Nino summer.  The dust layer is diminishing, but the shearing winds are not.  The average date for the 1st hurricane is August 11th with the 2nd hurricane occurring by August 26th.  That will not happen this year.   I am seeing 3 swirls out in the Atlantic & 2 of them might yet become named storms.

It would be a shame if NHC names the system north of Bermuda as it is racing into colder waters.  The system off of Africa has the greater chance to develop.

But satellite views indicate the lack of T-storms around a weak rotation.  Models do forecast development and this will probably become Dolly in another day or two.  

Most models keep this system weak allowing it to go farther to the west and not making the northward turn until getting north of Puerto Rico.  My next podcast will go into detail as to why we must continue to pay attention even though it appears the pattern is set for a re-curvature to the north away from the U.S.  To watch it, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.

Some models even hint Invest 96 L (soon to be Dolly?) might go farther to the west.

One only has to remember Hurricane Andrew was making the turn to the north before shifting back towards the west eventually slamming south Florida.  We have almost 2 weeks to watch this system and I won't get nervous this far out.  Neither should you.  I found another interesting swirl just SE of Miami.

Models don't see it nor are the clusters of storms in the Gulf showing rotation.  We continue to see daily disturbances rotate around the Upper Heat dome over Texas.

Get rain, get cooler temperatures.

At least it appears the worst of this summer's heat is diminishing.  Now if only we can get some early season cool fronts once into September!  Stay tuned!