Fay Coming To Atlantic? AI Models Say Yes, Heat Dome Lingers

 On their 1 PM  T.W.O. (Tropical Weather Outlook), NHC has increased development chances east of Bermuda to 40%.  There is a definite swirl out there, but it appears to be more upper level than surface based.  None of the conventional models (GFS,EURO,CMC) have development, but the Google AI & Euro AI models do.  Let's begin with the wide satellite view and focus in on the area of NHC interest.

Any development will be slow along with forward motion so we'll have a long time to follow this system.  Here are the AI forecasts.

What I'm seeing is not much motion between this Wednesday & next Monday.  Looking at what's there right now and I'm seeing a rather hostile environment of upper lows.

In fact, I'm seeing a strong upper low (yellow arrows) with a weaker surface low (white arrows) near Bermuda.  IF something were to form, it's east of Florida and should make the curve north before reaching the East Coast.  There is an upper low over the western Gulf.

With the lingering upper high (Heat Dome) lingering over the Southeast, that low will be forced to keep drifting farther to the west into Texas.  There are signs that changes are coming later this month and that will be the focus of this week's podcast on Thursday.  To gain access to my podcast, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.  

Fall has come to the Northern Rockies with temps in the 40s & 50s at midday.  A weak front coming down the East Coast could bring us some drier air here for Thursday & Friday.

Note the dew points in the 40s showing up over the Great Lakes.  That's a sure sign that fronts are getting stronger and it's only a matter of time before they arrive down here.  I love seeing the temperature contrasts on either side of fronts.

One side of the front has 90+ while to the north it's in the 60s & 70s.  Of note, today is the 50th day Dallas has reached 100 this summer.  Their record for 100+ days is 71, which appears to be safe for what's been a hot summer. Locally, we have a few storms around, mostly on the North Shore.

Locations with nearby showers are less hot.  No rain and temps are low to mid 90s.

IF this weak backdoor front makes it, we'll notice lower dew points which will result in cooler morning lows especially north of the Lake.  We still have another week of summer left until the Fall Equinox arrives on Sept. 22nd at 7:05 PM. We won't reach sweater weather until well into October.  Stay tuned!