Back in the summer of 1970, I was going through Marine Corps boot camp in San Diego. One of our DIs (Drill Instructors) made this comment..."All we have now is a little war (Vietnam) going on now, but it's better than no war at all". Huh?!!! The 33 college graduates in our platoon looked at each other in disbelief. R U kidding me? What I learned many years later was the DI meant that we trained for war, and if we have no war, then our training is wasted. It's the feeling that I get this hurricane season. The NHC hurricane specialists train to track storms, but if there are no storms, their training is wasted. So in order for that not to happen, they use modern technology (satellite) to find something to track. Here's me back in 1970 receiving the "expert rifleman award".
Thankfully, I never had to use my training to break things and kill people! But NHC needs something to track since Invest 98-L has fizzled.
To me, it's a stretch to think a tropical system could form over the cooler waters of the North Atlantic, and it likely means another wasted name. But we have seen this already with Cristobal being named for 10 hours way out in the ocean. You can see how far out this is on the wide view of the Atlantic.
But it's not only NHC looking for something to talk about. FOX Weather continues to push Gulf Low formation in the 10-14 day timeframe. It is based on the CAG (Central American Gyre)
FOX Weather was quick to point out that activity is way more likely in the EPAC than in the Gulf. But they mentioned the MJO is going into the Favorable (rising air) phases (8 & 1) for development in the Gulf, Caribbean, or off the East coast.
Joe Bastardi of Weather Bell Analytics expects "a flurry of activity in the next 2-3 weeks" because of that MJO movement. Some of you have asked, "What is the MJO"? I did a podcast several weeks ago on the MJO.
IF you were a subscriber ($2/month) to my podcast, you know what the MJO is. IF you join now at bobbreck.com, you can go back to past podcasts (Jim Cantore, Bryan Norcoss), including the MJO to learn more about why it is important. Right now, the CAG region is quiet.
IF something were to develop with the CAG, it would NOT be this weekend but next weekend. I'm looking closer to home as an upper low over Florida heads into the NE Gulf today.
No model develops this upper low and it is likely to lift northward into Florida for next week. The heat dome is expected to slowly weaken as we head towards the end of September. That should allow some weak fronts (drier air) to work down to us.
Until the Heat Dome breaks down, we will not see any real cold fronts for at least another week. However, the heat is not as intense as a week ago and the less daylight and longer nights are having an affect.
The Fall Equinox occurs at 7:04 pm next Tuesday. We still have many 90+ days to go before we say goodbye to the summer of 2026. Can't wait to see those real October cold fronts coming so the "Fat Lady" can sing "Turn out the lights"! on this Hurricane Season. Stay tuned!
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