As has been the case this whole hurricane season, the Pacific remains very active while the Atlantic struggles to find any tropical systems. Computer models are all indicating a powerful winter-like nor'easter will develop for Friday through Sunday bringing down drier (lower humidity) air to the Gulf South. More on that in a bit. Let's begin with Cat. 5 (165 mph) Hurricane Polo that sprang to life yesterday and went from a Tropical storm to a Cat. 5 hurricane in 12 hours (Rapid Intensification). I begin with the early morning daylight views that showed the "stadium effect".
Polo is a totally symmetric storm with his circulation not disrupted by any wind shear. Fortunately, the NHC track keeps the core of the storm off the Mexican coast.
I believe Polo's winds (165 mph) are higher than Lala's (160 mph) making him the strongest storm in the EPAC so far. Some of his moisture is heading towards the desert Southwest where flood warnings will be up for several days. We are between that tropical moisture to the west and more tropical moisture to our east as that lingering Heat Dome hangs on.
The moisture to our east is heading into a developing east coast low that will explode later this week as an upper disturbance over the Midwest deepens the upper East Coast Trough.
All ingredients are in place for a classic winter-like Nor'Easter that will bring major impacts to the folks in the Northeast. Here's the set up.
All these graphics are from FOX Weather where they shifted their focus away from something developing down in the Caribbean or Gulf yesterday to something that all models develop for Friday through Sunday. We will be on the dry side of this system so we should have a great stretch of Fall weather except it'll still be almost hot.
How do they prepare for rising waters along the East Coast? They build up the sand dunes. It's not a permanent fix, but it does knock down the pounding surf much like our barrier islands. The Atlantic has some action, but it's all far out to sea.
Fay was downgraded to a Tropical Depression this morning and the system off of Africa (Gonzalo) will only impact the Cape Verde islands. So as Fall arrives at 7:04 PM tonight, know that the worst heat of summer is over.
We are not done with the 90+ days, but it appears the chances for another northern Gulf tropical threat keep decreasing. Tomorrow's podcast will focus on the rest of our Hurricane season. Go to bobbreck.com to sign up and become a subscriber. I will be on the road Wednesday with my next FB post coming on Thursday. Stay tuned!
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