As we say goodbye to, historically, the most active month of hurricane season, we enter October with no names in the Atlantic. NHC has downgraded both Fay & Hanna to remnant lows. In the short term 7-10 days, no tropical activity is likely due to the strong upper winds caused by the Super El Nino in the Pacific. You can see those upper winds on the visible satellite loop.
With an upper low over the Gulf, there can be no tropical development. This will be the first September since 1994 that didn't have a September Hurricane.
However, that same year had two hurricanes form in November (red circles). Note how neither affected the Gulf. With the MJO Still in 8 going into 1, we have about another week in the favorable (rising air) phase for something to develop.
Once the MJO gets into phases 2 & 3, our tropical season should be over here. FOX Weather is still hinting at the Central American Gyre (CAG) kicking off something in the southern Gulf in the 10-14 day time frame.
The bottom view is the Euro tropical development potential highlighting the greatest threat staying in the Pacific, but does have a smaller bullseye in the southern Gulf.
So even though it appears any tropical threat coming in early October stays down over the Gulf, I want to see some real cold fronts come through before I ask the "Fat Lady" to turn out the lights on this hurricane season. Tomorrow's podcast will focus on my thoughts regarding the rest of this season. To hear and see me, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber.
The only threat in the short term will be the flood potential caused by returning gulf moisture interacting with several cold fronts.
The upper trough crossing the Rockies will bring down a cold front close to us. These slow moving Fall fronts often can cause several days of heavy rains.
WPC has backed off the the heaviest rains over us, shifting the bullseye south of the MS/AL/FL coasts.
Let's hope that trend continues and the predicted wet weekend won't be so wet. Stay tuned!
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