FOX Weather Pushing Gulf Low, Stalled Front Means Soggy Weekend

Some computer models & the FOX Weather Channel continue to hint there will be a Gulf low forming late next week down in the Bay of Campeche.  NHC is having none of that as they do not highlight any area for development except way out in the Atlantic where the remains of Fay still linger.  There is a lot of disorganized storms over the Gulf, but the swirl down over the Bay of Campeche is an upper low.

An upper low typically makes for a hostile environment regarding tropical development.  But that low is moving westward taking the highest wind shear with it.

Gulf surface waters are still plenty warm, but the deeper Oceanic Heat Content has pushed into the southern Gulf and with the Gulf Stream eddy coming out of the Caribbean.  My only concern will be how will the weak fronts sagging southward interact with the deep tropical Moisture?  Here are the forecast positions from the WPC beginning with Saturday followed by Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

It's this front sagging into the southern Gulf that FOX Weather says something might develop.

Again, NHC isn't talking about this since it's still a week away.  IF something were to develop, I would have daily podcasts, but you have to be a subscriber to view those podcasts. Go to bobbreck.com to sign up.  I thought FOX Weather had an interesting graphic about what Hurricane letter has been retired the most?

It's the letter I.  The next named storm will be Isaias.  Coming so late in the season, it's highly unlikely it will become a major storm unless it developed down over the higher heat content.  Of course we want to see those Canadian fronts start coming and one is by Oct. 17th if models are correct.  It's certainly getting colder up over Alaska & much of Canada.

We have about another 10-14 days of summer-like warmth before we'll need sweaters and jackets for the second half of October.  The slow moving front that will make for a wet weekend here is not far away.

It is cooler behind this front (60s & 70s), but it's not the real cold fronts of October that will end our tropical threats.  They will come after the 15th.  The less hot temps this weekend will be due to clouds & rainfall.  Remember, 100% chance of rain does NOT mean it will rain 100% of the time. We will have many dry hours too.

Finally, it continues to be an active tropical season over the Pacific where we have 3 hurricanes/typhoons.

While the Atlantic has the second lowest ACE on record, the Pacific is 2 & 1/2 times above normal.  No signs of that changing.  Enjoy your weekend and keep the rain gear handy.  Stay tuned!