Back when I was on the air, I wanted to be the only one right rather than wrong with everyone else. That's why I used my knowledge plus experience to earn your trust. Ch. 8 overtook Ch. 4 as the weather leader during Major Hurricanes Isadore & Lili in 2002. Why? Because people trusted "What did Bob think?' instead of just what NHC and all the other channels repeated. They didn't accept what the models said. So while I await to hear from NHC, this is what I'm seeing.
A low level circulation has formed down over the SW Gulf and storms are becoming more concentrated around that center. NHC now says there is 100% chance for tropical development.
Before you all freak out, I still am in Orange Beach and not feeling any anxiety about where this system might go. Why? because we don't have a center yet and won't until a plane arrives tomorrow morning.
Do the initial spaghetti plots concern me? Not really. I want to be the bullseye at 5 days out. Where do i think it will go? Follow the surface front/weakness.
This system is more likely to follow the front towards the Florida Big Bend area. Just out is the NHC official guidance that you'll see on every channel.
The initial centerline track is just east of Biloxi meaning the brunt of the storm will be on Mobile Bay side eastward. We will follow that centerline every day to see what the NHC trending is doing. The farther east, the less impacts for NOLA.
I will start a daily podcast on Wednesday afternoon. To hear and see what I think, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber for $2/month. If you're happy with the local channels repeating the NHC information, that's OK. FOX 8 does an excellent job with showing you the models and the NHC official information. If you want more, go sign up and join the hundreds who trust the original Weather Authority. My podcast will explain in a 20-25 minute discussion what the other can't in their 3-4 minute weathercast. I have 157K+ FB followers and would like to have some of you join the hundreds who appreciate the knowledge of Bob Breck. Your decision to stay or leave is something I don't take lightly. Join the podcast for tomorrow afternoon. I'm disgusted to see all the social media posts stating like fact, this is what is gonna happen. Too soon tom know Gang. Stay tuned!
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