Yesterday I showed you that the NWS (National Weather Service) office in Slidell was calling for a 50-70% chance for rain on Halloween evening. I questioned why they were that high/aggressive on their forecast since we have no fronts coming to act as a "trigger" to produce lift/rain. Plus, today marks day 25 without rain..."when in drought, leave it out". As usual, I like to show you the reasons for my thinking. Let's begin with the new NWS Forecast.
Radar at 2 pm has all this rain over central & south Texas and one might assume that is coming our way. IF you watch radar AND satellite loops, you would see why it is not.
With a deep low redeveloping along the upper West Coast trough, that rain over Texas plus the remains of Vance over Mexico will be drawn more to our north and west. "But there's more" as Lee Zurik used to say. Currently, there are no fronts around us, but lots of dry air.
We have this bubble of warm air over the Southeast with one tongue of dry surface air over us and another tongue of moisture/higher dew points surging over Texas into the central Plains. In their discussion, NWS points out the "trigger" to give us rain might be a moisture boundary forming late Saturday night into Sunday. The WPC's (Weather Prediction Center) graphics indicate just that. They actually form a frontal boundary on their map while I've drawn in a dark green dashed line that more aligns itself with their heavy rainfall totals.
So that is why I'm not jumping on the bandwagon about rainfall this weekend. It's hard to break the dry cycle without a strong cold front (coming next Wednesday) or a strong upper disturbance.
I just think 60% is way too high. 20-30% seems more reasonable based on what I'm seeing. Who will get the rains? The West Coast & Rockies.
A deep storm NW of Seattle is energizing the "Pineapple Express" of moisture from Hawaii. That will bring us a much better chance for rains here late next Tuesday into Wednesday. Finally, this week's podcast from Orange Beach is out. If you want to watch it, go to bobbreck.com and become a subscriber. For all my subscribers, IF you can't open it, let us know in the comment section on this FB post. Coming to the podcast in 4 weeks, Val & Bob's wedding cruise. You don't want to miss it. Stay tuned!
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