As I await the 4 PM NHC advisory, I'm seeing subtle changes that are all good for SE LA/MS and less good for NW Florida beaches. We have heard all summer how wind shear has protected us from having an active tropical season. Many of you have commented about what happened to the wind shear? Well, on satellite views, I'm seeing both wind shear and dry air impacting Hurricane Isaias and not allowing him to get much stronger. Recon aircraft reports pressures have RISEN suggesting a weaker storm. Take a look.
There definitely is an eyewall, but look at all the dry air covering the western Gulf. Isaias has reached the loop current of warmest waters of the Gulf, but will the wind shear and dry air cap the increase NHC called for later tonight & tomorrow? I will go into what I'm seeing and thinking on this afternoon's podcast, but you must be a subscriber to see & hear me.
I don't just repeat what NHC says nor just show you "what the model says". The cost of $2/month is one Power Ball ticket. Go sign up and listen to our next podcast. I will be talking about the slight shift to the east in model tracks.
Bryan Norcross pointed out how the Google deep mind model now brings the centerline to Destin. Will NHC follow that trend?
IF that model proves correct, note the highest winds will be east of Pensacola on over to Panama City. Ditto for the highest storm surges. Let's see what NHC changes at 4 PM. My podcast will be out before 6 PM. Stay tuned!
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