Ian Getting Stronger, Still Waiting On Turn To North...

Many times over the years I've watched/waited for storms to make the turn around the Bermuda high and recurve to the north.  What we don't want is for any storm to keep going farther to the west before making the turn since that would bring us closer to danger.  We are at 90 degrees west latitude and really don't want to see a storm get beyond 85 degrees (Apalachicola) before making that turn.  Currently, Tropical Storm Ian is at 76.0 degrees, so we still have some time before getting concerned.  Clearly, Ian is the only game in town for us to watch.

The satellite structure is looking more organized and it's only a matter of time before Ian becomes a major hurricane.  Spaghetti models continue with the westward shift and so does NHC.

This westward shifting trend is likely to continue into Sunday as the forward motion ( West at 14) is rather brisk.  The two main models are in deep disagreement as to future landfall.

The top graphic is the Euro valid for late Wednesday night with landfall near Tampa.  The middle is the GFS at the same time much farther to the west with the bottom making landfall near Pensacola.  NHC has chosen a path in between.   IF the GFS proves correct, the Florida beaches are in for a blow.  If the Euro is correct, then north and central will bear the worse impacts with the Panhandle beaches spared.  Since Ian is still 2 days from getting to the Gulf, a lot can happen.  A cold front is still on track here so Ian should be deflected well to our east.

Finding that colder air is hard on the surface map.   It's still quite hot across all of the South.

You can see the drier air/lower dew points to our north.  As Ian enters the Gulf next week, his circulation will draw down that better feeling air.   Let's be watching for that turn to begin tomorrow.  If it doesn't, we'll need to pay closer attention.  Finally...

As you know, I love to look at features on the daylight/visible satellite views.  These two are from this morning when we were still dark here.  Look at the sun illuminating the tall cloud tops with the storms south of the beaches.  The arrows show the deep shadow cast to the west of those tall tops.  Pretty cool!  Stay tuned!