I'm getting ready to head out to Jefferson Parish's Uncle Sam Jam, where at 6 PM I'll introduce the headline act, legendary Don McLean of American Pie fame. If current storms to our west act like yesterday, they will weaken, and rain should not be an issue. C'mon out and enjoy the singing & fireworks. Of course, this is a hurricane blog, and that's what we focus on. NHC has increased the probability for development to 60% off the Carolinas coasts, and a Recon aircraft is scheduled for tomorrow if needed.
Right now, all we have is a broad upper trough with no signs of rotation on the visible or water vapor views. However, radar is hinting at some weak banding over the Florida Peninsula, especially just off shore of Cape Canaveral. Whatever forms, it's not our problem.
Since nothing has gotten organized down at the surface, the drier air heading our way has stalled just to our north. Several upper disturbances will make much of Texas soggy this weekend.
This frontal boundary was never about cooler air. The 60s dew points are mainly to our NE with the boundary stalled. IF a depression would form off the Carolinas this weekend, its circulation might be enough to bring us those lower dewpoints on Saturday & Sunday. My guess? Nope!
Some folks (like every day) are getting cooling relief as heavy storms with vivid lightning drop temps from the 90s into the 70s & 80s. Otherwise, it's basic hot & humid with spotty storms this holiday weekend. Three weeks from today opens the Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo. Even if you don't fish, for $55 you can register at tarponrodeo.org and could win the grand prize of $10,000. Your chances are way better than Powerball or Lotto.
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