Change of Seasons...

Wow...what a great feeling to get rid of the humidity, if only for a few days. As we now head towards the second half of September, our focus for hurricanes shifts from those that form well out in the Atlantic (Cape Verde Storms) to areas closer to home...the Western Caribbean & the Gulf of Mexico. These 2 areas are now the breeding grounds for us to watch as any storm coming off of Africa will 1) take 2 weeks to reach us as the tropical easterlies have decreased and 2) will not likely survive the westerly winds that keep sinking farther southward with each new cold front. At the moment, there is nothing in either the Gulf or Caribbean that appears likely to develop for the next several days. However, several computer models continue to show a tropical system forming in the NW Caribbean late this week and moving northward into the Gulf. On Weatherunderground's web page, Jeff Masters says ..."there is a 40% chance for tropical development in the Gulf". I'm not sure what that tells us except when nothing happens, Dr. Masters will say there was a 60% chance that nothing will happen. So my feelings stay the same...until something develops/forms, it serves no purpose (except to scare folks) to speculate on where it MIGHT go. For now, all is quiet for us.

Bob