A large upper high has settled over the Gulf South with the main storm track diverted far to our north. This pattern has kept us dry while areas farther to our north have been hammered over and over again with severe weather. The next 2 days should see little change, but the high is expected to weaken over the weekend allowing our rain chances to increase.
This upper high would block any Gulf Disturbance from coming our way so let's hope we see more blocking highs as we get to August & September. Meteorologist Kim Vaughn went back to 1950 to see if there was any pattern to early season storms (like Authur) meaning more active seasons. The answer is NO. Some years that had named storms form in May or June ended up with only 8 or 9 total named storms...other years with early season storms ended up with 12-15+ storms. That's why our Emergency Mangers remind us it only takes one storm with our location on it.
I think a better way to look at our hurricane risk is the FREQUENCY OF RETURN. NHC tells us every 2-3 years we get a tropical disturbance (depression or storm). Every 6-10 years we see a Cat. 1 Hurricane...every 13-22 years a Cat. 2...every 24-32 years a Cat 3...every 34-78 years a Cat. 4 and every 101-190 years a Cat. 5. The really big storms don't come that often. Hope that makes you feel better. Still if you live here you must be personally responsible for your safety. Be ready to leave or you better be prepared if you're thinking of staying. Let's not ever have what happened after Katrina.
3 comments:
Thanks, Bob. Your comments are very helpful. Trying to compare to the past is always interesting, but you are correct, we still need to live each day in the present.
My guts tell me that this will be an active season even though the wind shear is present.
Bob you need to do a rain dance. It is soooo hot!!
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