Bertha became 2008's 1st hurricane this morning and rapidly intensified to a Cat. 3 this afternoon. NHC did not forecast this intensification and it appears to be due to several reasons. 1) It moved into lower wind shear, 2) it slowed down its forward speed and 3) it moved across somewhat warmer (78 to 82 degrees) ocean waters. Still, this rapid ramp up in surface velocity continues to puzzle hurricane forecasters. What we should learn is this...if we get a storm in the Gulf this summer, let's assume it will rapidly get stronger as it moves over the "Loop Current" and not just think..."nah, just a Cat 1 or 2, no big deal". The levees have been built stronger, but until they are tested again by a strong storm, can we really feel safe? The obvious answer is no. Bertha will not be our problem and it appears we will not have any tropical troubles in the Gulf for the next 7-10 days. The closer we get to August, the more we need to pay attention to the tropics.
I'll try to report on the AMS weather conference in my next blog.
3 comments:
Like you always say preperation is the key.
I've heard that it's going to be very hot during the weekend.
All the hurricanes last year exploded into big strong storms of Cat4 or higher that entered the Gulf, last year a certain weather personality forecasted the exact opposite. hmmm
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