Tropics Getting Active...

As we reach mid July, it is not unusual to see tropical activity start to increase. Bertha has become the longest tracking July storm in modern times, but she is moving away from Bermuda tonight and is heading out into the shipping lanes of the Atlantic. Our next thing to watch is a strong wave with a circulation about 2 1/2 days east of Barbados & the Leeward Islands. It is in an area of low wind shear but also heading into some very dry air that should prohibit any rapid development. Computer models bring it into the Caribbean later this week where Westerly wind shear remains rather strong. I would be surprised to see this system survive such a hostile environment. On the other hand, we need to watch the Gulf of Mexico this week as an unusual July front sags into the Gulf. Surface pressures are lower than last week and, if you recall back in 1983, Hurricane Alicia developed from an old front that dipped down into the Gulf. Nothing is happeneing so far, but that should be our focus for the next 3-4 days.