Fay is stalled...Will be slow mover for days.

What we know tonight is 1) Fay is nearly stationary drenching the same areas with rain totals now exceeding 20-25 inches. 2) High pressure following a cold front has built down the east coast blocking any movement to the north...this should force it to eventually move back to the west. 3) As the high retreats to the east on Fridayor Saturday, Fay should begin a turn to the north.

What we don't know...1) When will she start moving again? 2) Will she drift westward and move back over the northern Gulf? 3) Are most of the computer models (including VIPIR) wrong regarding the turn back to the north?

Over the years I've learned that the models usually have difficulty with these weaker storms. Am I totally confident that we have nothing to worry about? No, but as I said last night, the chances of Fay heading all the way back to Louisiana are REMOTE for 2 reasons. The surface high should have pulled away allowing the turn to the north long before Fay would threaten us, and the upper low to our NW is keeping a SW flow over us and that should help turn Fay to our north. Bottomline again tonight, Fay is Florida's problem in the short term. Her heavy rain shield will spread westward and northward bringing a flood threat to the FLA. panhandle & beaches and to southern Georgia & Alabama. Sometimes Tropical Storms (Danny 1997, Allison 2001, Isidore 2002) can do more damage due to flooding than most hurricanes. Fay will be added to that list.