I'm waiting for the latest NHC track due out in 2 hours, but satellite pictures sure show what NHC said on their 8 PM update. Fay has slowed to a crawl after briskly moving 15-18 mph for the past 2 days. "Usually" when a storm slows down, it SOMETIMES means it's changing its direction of movement.
To begin with...Fay is still in the Caribbean and won't make it into the SE Gulf until Monday afternoon. We continue to have very strong WNW winds over the northern Gulf which over time will change to SW. IF Fay should stray far left of the current NHC forecast track, those west winds will eventually turn her AWAY from Louisiana. Obviously, as CAVEMAN claims, computer models are getting so good there is very little need for anyone with EXPERIENCE anymore. Perhaps you have noticed, the models were initially very good on FAY, but lately she's not following the models. In fact, there is no longer a consensus in the models with one even bringing it very close to us. That's where experience comes in. FAY should head towards a weakness in the atmosphere. The current weakness is an old frontal boundary draped along the Gulf coast from Texas to the Carolinas. As FAY drifts towards that weakness during the next 48 hours, the westerlies should pick her up and turn her to the right(east).
Am I concerned? No, because she hasn't even reached the Gulf yet. Besides, they don't call them HURRICANE SPECIALISTS for nothing. The 8 main NHC forecasters are really good and they all call for FAY to make the turn. Perhaps she is starting to do that tonight. We have plenty of time to react if FAY does something goofy (like a Betsy loop). In the meantime, saying FAY is the second coming of Katrina or will head our way is simply IRRESPONSIBLE.
5 comments:
Bob you know you love the caveman... I'm lost for words, you actually kinda gave kudos to the NHC! Should they not upgrade it to a hurricane to help out the homeowners on their insurance?
Caveman, caveman, caveman.....
Thanks for the insight Bob, That's exactly why I trust your opinion. Computer models are a long way away from replacing experience. Just look at how many models the NHC uses and they don't blindly post what the computer says. The forecasters use those models and their own EXPERIENCE to determine the official path. I've been pretty confident in their 3-5 day predictions of most storms myself but that coupled with explanations of steering components, etc make me feel less worried when it's not necessary.
Computers are only as good as the information that are fed into them. I'm staying with a weather forecaster that has many years of experience, and is our most accurate and knowledgeable weatherman here in N.O. Keep up the good work, Bob. We count on you for your expertise when we are nervous about storms coming in the Gulf.
Thanks,
S.B.B.
Just when I think we may be out of the woods with Fay, there are computer models suggesting that it will stall out and "possibly" reenter into the GOM! I can't wait to hear your input on this scenario during your 5:00 forecast. I'm tired of worrying about Fay. It's time to start worrying about the next storm! I hate hurricane season!
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