At 10 pm Gustav has not changed much remaining a strong Tropical Storm. Peak winds over Jamaica at the surface have been less than 50 mph. NHC believes that will change during the next 2-3 days as the system moves over the warmest waters of the Caribbean. The wild card I see tonight is what appears to be a deepening trough over the SE down into the Gulf. Not sure what effect this might have 2-3 days from now IF it's still there when Gustav arrives. Upper troughs usually provide wind shear which would inhibit Gustav. Wouldn't that be something when everybody is predicting Gustav to get stronger? In the short term, Gustav should continue moving mainly west. The turn to the NW may start late tomorrow. He doesn't get into the Gulf until late Saturday. Bottom line...landfall is still nearly 5 days away or longer...plenty of time for him to miss us. Decision day still appears to be on Saturday.
Questions...do I go to Springs, TX for weekend reunion? Sure, but remember Gustav may prevent you from coming back when you want. Effects on various locations? I will go into more details as the storm gets closer. Why use VIPIR? Because it was right with Fay. I want to use whatever model is handling the storm the best. So far, none are doing well with Gustav. Storm surge? Low pressure at the surface allows the rise in water heights with the winds generating the waves. The slope of the coastal terrain makes the surge larger or smaller. Flooding potential? When we see how quickly or slowly the storm is moving, we'll be able to tell you how much rain to expect.
Finally, I have spoken to 3 crying women today scared to death about this storm. Those of you who insist on doom & gloom, go somewhere else. As I said earlier...I will not hype this storm. If and when I feel we need to leave or bunker down, I'll let you know...but not 4-5 days before landfall.
18 comments:
You tell 'em Bob! As for me, life is continuing as normal until we have something to actually freak about! Don't panic, it's a waste of energy, and does nothing but freak out yourself more and freak out the people around you.
Bob,
Gustave is farther away tonight that it was at 5pm yesterday. It has moved to the south yet the tracks show it making a 180 degree turn back to the north.
What is going to cause that, what is preventing it from continuing on its current south to SW journey?
Bob,
I feel so much better when I listen to you show...you are a no bull kinda guy....that is why the northshore loves you so!!!!
Bob,
Your new viper track shown tonight (storm comes in almost at mouth of river) seems to differ a lot from the earlier vipir one and most others showing it more westerly. I was just wondering why you sort of discounted that change tonight - you didn't seem to make much of it. What changed in the data tonight to cause vipir to come to this conclusion but not the other models to shift it in the same direction? Sorry if this is a dumb question or if I missed something.
Also, when you read the latest discussion from the NHC they indicate at the very end that they would not be surprised if this became a Cat 4 or 5. No one has said this yet that I know of as a possibility, I guess that's just an effort to stem some panic among Katrina veterans?
Here's another dumb question. When my eneducated eyes look at the written probability figures I see exactly the same probability for New Orleans and Gulfport. Why would this be? Would the probability be slightly less for GP since its further east? Or, are these numbers derived from some data set that does not correlate well with the models? Or, am I just not intelligent enough to get all this?
thanks, you are really dear to us at storm time!
Thanks for the update Bob. I guess with it sitting over Jamaica the price of Blue Mountain Coffee just went up.... Hopefully it continues west and we wave at it as it passes by in the gulf (sorry texas)...
well, I guess women will cry when Vipir gives them THAT show !!!!!
Wow, that really does get freaky when even Vipir starts scaring people like that.
Thanks for your leadership Bob, it's a shame everyone else is trying to spook everyone like they do. It really is a shame. I just hope they have not cried wolf so that one of those next storms doesn't get neglected. I'm happy to hear that Mandeville and Curtis are still heading out to the games in Dallas and not getting freaked out like the other schools.
I can't believe they canceled the games for Friday night. Bob, you need to call those schools and give them some insight. My God, the storm is 4 days away IF it comes here and they cancel fottball games ? Whats wrong with this world?
Keep up the outstanding work Mr. Breck, without you I would have taken too many medications to calm my nerves !
As hard as it is to get around in this wheelchair I'm glad I don't have to freak out like those other idiots !
By the way Bob, I thought the term now was HUNKER down, not bunker down.............didn't that change with the Desert Storm talk ? lol
I guess you're just too old school !
Vipir might have been right with Fay but I remember it being as wrong as the rest of the models with Katrina.
Like I said, I have more respect for your education, experience, knowlege and "gut" feeling than ANY computer model. Stop depending on that stuff and just use it for info and tell us what YOU think. YOU are the professional forecaster with the experience and we depend on YOU, not Vipir.
( besides, would you depend on a computer model that was named "dodge dart" ?
Keep up the spirit !
( I can't believe they canceled the Katrina Bells ceremonys for Friday.............could it be that "those guys" could not get enough support ?
Thanks for the update Bob! sometimes when I start freaking out (not crying yet), I come back here to reread your words of comfort.
As a former Louisiana resident, I have to admit that until Katrina rolled through I had little faith in your forecasting. It's refreshing to hear a calm, collected voice giving us the data we need without roiling a panic.
Even though I'm now a Mississippi coastal resident, I'm keeping tuned in to you for the latest. The stations over here seem to believe that since the track has shifted westward, we're all clear; they've stoppped talking about it / stopped regular updates.
Last Night Carl, you know from the other station said High Pressure was going to build over our region and is thought to be one reason this storm steers more to the West of us.
Last Night around 11:15 right before you signed off, you made no mention of that but still gave your analysis and kept talking about the deeping trough that might cause wind sheer once it gets into the Gulf.
Do you see High Pressure building over our area early next week?
You have mentioned a front coming down, I guess the timing is off with that and is not a factor in the storms direction...
Hey gang, just ran VIPIR with the lastest data and VIPIR is telling that Gustav is expected to go through the drive at Taco Bell and order a burrito supreme with sour cream.
Gustav now getting that famous hurricane look and staring to form an eyewall. After checking something I think everyone might be in for a big surprise on it's forecasted track soon.
Bob,
Keep Nacondra (sp) on the graphics and your face on the screen until we get past this. I know you will need a break, but we really need our Nash II. Thanks for all of your hard work.
Highs waiting on troughs to weaken them....all waiting to see if Gustav behaves and follows ANYTHING that we hope...
Hmmmm...I've got 3 or 4 scenarios that depend upon how strong that trough is, the light shear (but possibly getting stronger) in the Gulf, and WHEN and WHERE Gustav gets into the Gulf...
Texas to Florida is still all game as far as I'm concerned....this is a toughy.
Bob's sooooo right.....the course of this storm (bad child, actually) is irratic....just be ready and don't panic. We may not know what he's doing until 2 days before landfall. Just like Katrina was NOT forecast to hit us, 2 days before landfall, and models suddenly changed, this one is VERY uncertain....I see NOW (and am hoping for) a real easterly or westerly track (both are VERY possible)....we'll see who moves first in this game of chess.
I'm going to call my prediction....Texas to Florida!
Bob, after Katrina, you (and your son) were a lifeline to so many who had lost communication and didn't know what was going on in New Orleans. Thanks for your hard work and honesty.
Oh, and I'm with Caveman on the VIPIR models (and all of them!)...I'm seeing Burger King, though! ;)
Stormzz
VIPIR model run is showing Obama losing presidental election, let's all hope VIPIR is correct on this one.
caveman, I think you're disruptive, but I gotta second that one ;-)
Sorry Bob, I don't know if you got that this is my first time to use this. We have a trip planned to Disney on Sept 3, leaving from N.O. and returning on Sept 10 should we cancel with Gustav and Hanna
Hi Bob,
We keep hearing how vulnerable the Westbank is to flooding. How much should we worry about our levees here on the Westbank, if the storm goes to the West of the Metro? What specific trouble spots are there?
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