Watching radar loops the past several hours confirms that our VIPIR model is handling the track of Fay better than the NHC's prediction...and that is good for us. IF VIPIR is correct, the bulk of Fay's rain will stay to our north and east. IF Fay goes closer to the NHC's track, we would get into her heavy rain shield late Sunday into Monday. RIGHT NOW, that doesn't appear likely. In fact, IF VIPIR is right, we'll see no rain until Sunday midday, some heavy T-Storms possible Sunday PM into early Monday morning. During the day on Monday, Fay should drift farther to the northeast with only a few lingering showers here.
Who's gonna be right? Even if it's the NHC track, all we'll see is several inches of rain with the heaviest staying across the Northshore. The winds are not a major problem as there are no tropical storm force winds currently over land. Tides maybe 2-3 feet above normal at worst. I'll update again later this evening.
4 comments:
Caveman needs kudos...
1 Fay did go WEST!
2 Fay will go into the record books for being one of very few Tropical storms to actually intensify and even form an eye-wall after making landfall! Plus breaking many rainfall total records in Florida.
3 Fay may be a sibling of Katrina, she is heading towards us! And she may be just under Hurricane strength . . .
Bob,
Thanks for your hourly broadcasts..I like examining the wind shifts in panama city and other cities..
As far as neanderthals go...i ignore them..they are supposed to be extinct..
Volumetric Imaging and Processing of Integrated Radar, known by the acronym VIPIR, is a type of post-processing program applied to traditional radar systems and is distributed by Baron Weather Solutions. VIPIR is not a new form of weather radar, it is a software that emulates analysis of radar data for private users, in particular television stations, similar to the Weather Decision Support System program used by the National Weather Service. - Google
Widely used by many television stations nation wide.
Tallahassee radar shows a very distinct movement of the center of rotation to the northwest. The official NHC track has only updated the current location but has kept the remainder of the track basically untouched. If you look at the 5 day track forecast, it shows Fay making a distinctive S-SW jog back over water near Pensacola and then on the westward track. I believe the center if still definable will cross into Alabama north of the Florida panhandle (east of Mobile). We may not see as much of this storm as we were thinking.
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