As you all have been noticing, Ike's forward speed is down to only 8 mph (Gustav was 18 mph) but all models have fixed in on the mid Texas coast. They were jumping around earlier in Ike's trek thru the Atlantic & across Cuba, but the past 2 days they have focused on Texas just like they focused on LA with Gustav. That makes me feel better, however, as I said before, I won't feel secure until Ike passes 90 west and has picked up some forward motion. That should happen by midday on Thursday.
Some comments...why does it seem I offer more advice than others regarding tropical systems? 1) Education plus 2) experience = trust. My 1st hurricane was Agnes in 1972. I have been tracking storms a long time. Plus, I'm not afraid to be wrong. I find no glory in everyone being wrong. The glory is in being the only one right. Being right is a matter of perception...for instance, caveman proudly proclaimed he predicted the TX/LA border 5 days before landfall for Gustav. The storm made landfall (according to NHC) over Cocodrie. I measured that distance from the TX/LA border to Cocodrie to be 193 miles. 193 miles is roughly the distance between New Orleans & Mobile. Is that very accurate? I don't think so. Now he says that again when he clearly sees the far right side of the cone is TX/LA border. What a prediction. He should call the emergency manager of Galvaston & Houston and tell them not to evacuate since they will be on the weak side of IKE. When you have no pressure on you IF you're wrong, it's easy to make guesses.
Finally, The Weather Channel basically follows NHC. They know, that by giving conflicting information, that could postpone folks from reacting/listening to local authorities. Since I speak to our local market in great detail (sometimes taking 10-12 minutes), I can give opinions with explanations that allow my viewers to make an educated choice on whether to stay or leave. I have NEVER said...don't evacuate, but I have said you can delay that decision knowing you'll be facing more traffic the longer you wait. Obviously our ratings show that's what the FOX 8 viewers want. Am I for everybody? Heck no. I understand that. What I don't understand is people who say they don't like me and keep watching me. Go figure.
35 comments:
Bob,
Once again, you are right on the money. This is the the reason I have trusted your opinion, as a kid, and why I will continue to do so. Thanks for the honesty and being "one of us".
Praying for Tx,
Marielle
Thanks, Bob for your explanation on what separates you from the rest on forcasting. I watch the local news here in Bay St. Louis, but always will turn to you for the weather. I really enjoy your detailed synopsis on the weather and will continue watching you in the future. Thanks, again!
Wow Bob, you are one patient man....explaining yourself beyond what I would. I know that it's appreciated!
I have a comment about why some say they don't like you and yet keep watching....
It's those that don't like that you won't mislead them, going out on a weak limb just to one up the other stations. You give information, and hint at your gut feeling when it's based on sound scientific principles. You always give the possibilities in layman's terms...plain English.
Folks instinctively know, that your words are well thought out....they may not like what you say or the way you say it...but they know that there is no hot air (no pun intended, HA HA) coming from you...always the straight story. That makes you trustable, believable. WHen you don't know...you say so.
See, some don't like it if you don't know...but gang, rest assured if Bob has the GUTS to tell you he doesn't know, NO ONE DOES!
Trust is an issue that is earned. For 30+ years, you have systematically and thoughtfully reported the weather and tracked storms in the area. You've earned watchers that don't have to like you....they trust you!
Keep at it Bob...and thanks.
-Stormzz
I can remember Hurricane Goerges and a lot of people applauded Nash Roberts for predicting landfall in Gulfport or Biloxi, where ever it was..that he nailed it....
I distinctly remember before Georges got in the Gulf, he said it was going to head north, cross Florida and go out into the Atlantic...and the storm didn't quite do that...
Now I am not trying to demish Nash, he is well respected, a great meteorologist,and local icon here like K&B, Schegmann and Holmes, but he did originally miss on this storm.
So I agree, you don't take glory for being correct and not that Nash did for predicting the landfall but many people were praising him for that, or maybe we were all happy it turned at the last minute. And like you said Bob, you are going to be wrong from time to time...and I just think that adds to your creditibility.
We all know Caveman is the only one perfect around here.....(ducks to avoid getting hit by the pots and pans.)
BSB
Bob,
What is your gut feeling on this storm? I know you said "the Models say Texas..." but that seems to have a little something between the lines. Latest advisory indicates that the movement is NW again (rather than WNW) and it's still pushing 8MPH - what happens if it continues this direction and speed (or slower) do you think a turn to the north is possible before landfal in Texas??
Wow, I have a comment about Nash.
He was awesome in his day!
But, you have to look at the perspective from which he did his predicting.
Nash was right on George...but if I recall, he was right 36 hours out when he started monitoring pressure drops along the coast...then, found the one dropping the fastest and predicted (or OBSERVED) that the storm was going there, lol.
Obviously, back then, NO ONE could predict where a storm was going days ahead of time...certainly, if they got lucky and guessed 5 days out, it was just that, luck.
Nash was at the top of his game, and had a real sense for weather. I give my utmost respect, but I've said it before and say it now...if he had to work in today's environment, with the latest technology, trying to predict days out, Nash would not be revered as he was.
In 20 years, I hope that Meteorology has advanced to where even Bob couldn't keep up. Through research, better satellite imagery, better developed models, hopefully, we will be able to accurately predict storms well in advance with certainty.
For for today, BOB ROCKS!! :)
Bob, oh, I was wondering if you stay in a cave during a hurricane for protection (hides from the other cavemen, throwing rocks, lol)? Actually, folks may be interested in what you do to stay safe during a storm.
Stormzz
Stormzz....You hit the nail right on the head. Bob IS very straightforward and explains things in layman's terms. The little people like me need that and each year when hurricane season rolls around I look for comfort in Bob's words! :0) I was a nervous wreck before, during and after Katrina and Bob always made me feel better....whether I was reading his blog or watching him on the news. Hey, maybe we should start a BB Fan club..lol!
Okay, I have a question, forgive me if it seems dumb. On wunderground, the GFDL model run seem to show Ike skirting the La Coast before making landfall in Texas. Is this a possibility?
The water is comming up on the road in Grand Iles right now, about 2 feet.
Hey....with the new track moving Ike NW, any possible way it will continue that path to us in NO?
Thanks, Caveman, for coming out of your cave and joining us in this time period! Your thoughts and in-sights have been helpful :)
No one can absolutely predict where a hurricane will hit, even with the "state of the art" equipment that NHC has to work with. Imagine how Nash felt with his "Felt tip pen"!!!
Nashette
I also was thinking the same thing...Northwest movement and very slow...Hummmm... could that change the "cone of error" down the line, perhaps in the next official forecast? I, like Bob will be more at ease when Ike passes that 90 degree longtitude. I still think, personally, Lake Charles should keep it's eyes open and stay tuned. These things are so very unpredictable and only time will tell where it will go inland. The slower it moves, the longer it has to catch another front or miss the one that is suppose to bring it towards the Texas coastline.
Nashette
Cameron Parish issued a mandatory evacuation today -- obviously they're not taking chances on the slow forward motion, though they're on the edge of the cone. Even with landfall in Galveston they'd still get an unbelievable amount of rain and "wet side" action; heavy squalls etc.
I've noticed that the cone of error for Ike is much wider and covers a lot more ground than the usual storm, and though NHC seems certain of a Texas landfall, they don't seem to be confident as to pinning down a city. I think the answer will start to reveal itself tomorrow when Ike is in the middle of the Gulf.
Bob, I love you and I dont watch anyone else. I like you only b/c you are straight up and tell it like it is. the other forecasters always go with the NHC and never give their own opinion.
Keep doing what your doing.
I think that what Bob is referring to with past 90 degrees, is that with a storm moving forward quickly, it is difficult for it to rapidly change direction from NW to suddenly, NE, lol... past 90 degrees, it would be hard, although not impossible to circle back and hit LA.
The GFDL (and several other models) have slowly moved more NORTH, not eastward! The LA/TEX border, Houston ...is not out of the question. I'M WATCHING....I don't like Ike for following what we think he should do...lol
BUT, I think the chance of Ike hitting LA is about as good as Caveman becomming president (oh, I'm REALLY ducking now, lol).
I have to look..I don't recall which at the moment, but there was a hurricane that circled back east from close to Texas and hit Louisiana. The situation is just not right for Ike doing the same.
...but Caveman, keep an eye out for us! IF you dare....Bob might be nice to you if you consider sharing that gumbo...
:)
Stormzz
I don't write often but I read daily. You never disappoint. Your prognostications are usually accurate and informative and comforting. I can count on you to tell it like it is and in a time when that is a rare commodity, I thank you.
What are the chances this storm could still go to Mexico?
LOL you're wrong...
Looking pretty much like a Gustav track, just a little more to the west. I think that officials should be impressing upon the Louisiana populus to keep an eye out. Everyone I know stopped watching Ike when forecasters kept reassuring that it would hit Texas/Mexico. They just don't want to think about another one and that gave them the opportunity to forget about it.
That's what scares me.. everyone thought Katrina was going to Florida until 3 days before landfall - I know this won't be anywhere need a Katrina event in Louisiana - but still, we need to stay focused on the fact that it's still several days away and the projected landfall is likely to change over the next couple of days - I would just hate to see another last minute scramble in southeast Louisiana.
I was watching the contour lines on the ridge over the southeast as the contour lines of Ike began to interact with them today. Since last night the contour lines over Louisiana have regressed as Ike's advanced. NHC stated a few days ago that little has changed in steering currents in the gulf since Gustav. Ike is still going very slow wich, as a student of Nash as a child, I learned was indicative of a very large hurricane turning. Since Ike was moving West-Northwest prior to slowing, which way is it turning if at all? This storm makes me nervous.
One other comment:
WHY do the maps of the United States still show a picture of our coast that is so inaccurate? Look at a picture of our coast from space and juxtapose that with the image on the map. Can any levee system really hold as our coast regresses at such an alarming rate?
Going on a job interview in Birmingham next week and that is just so like saying goodbye to a someone that you love very much but you just know is BAD for you...
WHAT HAPPENS IF IT SLOWS DOWN AND WILL IT
I'll say what I said earlier...still looks like the storm is moving more North than west....
Plus it looks like dry air is once again working its way into the storm.
I just heard they expect Ike to be a Cat 4 when he hits...I just do not see that at the moment...
I agree with Tara, we all need to stay on our toes and keep an eye on this thing. It was suppose to hold a west northwest track today and it has however been on a northwest track, which could change the cone of error.
nashette
Well, I'll be darned...They DID change the cone of error...Inching back to the east....little by little...Before you know it, New Orleans will be back in the cone! Let's hope not anyway...If that track doesn't change back to west northwest, the cone will move further east....We will know better when the 10:00 advisory comes out...
Nashette
The Friday before Katrina it was looking like well into the Panhandle, by Saturday morning it had shifted 250 miles west to us. I was reading on the Florida State University website about the computer models and their reliability. The author stated that some storms are more predictable than others because the models rely on guidance from steering currents and such. I dont see any strong steering currents to "force" Ike anywhere. The ones that scare me are the ones that can sneek up on us like Katrina did and give us little time to make preparations and get out of the way.
Bob,
You can have this job trying to predict the weather....lol.
BOB.....i love you!!
Since I am a relatively new fan of yours, I must say, you have quite a loyal following in the New Orleans area. You are well respected and it seems that the area really follows your every word. 30 years of experience goes a long way whens it comes to weather predictions and forecasts. I hope your area knows how lucky they are to have you and please know that I will be following your blog and forecasts from where ever in the world I happen to be. Take care and be safe!
Your North La. fan,
Delta Skygoddess
Bob, once again, thanks for all your hard work! i'm eyeing this storm closely, cuz it's just not sitting right with me. luckily i am traveling to alabama this weekend to get my baby, who i had to leave behind after gustav due to work. although i am praying that this storm continues west, i am still preparing my house just in case, as i will not be home to do it.
and stormzz, you seemed a tad disappointed that you did not have a 'fan', so to speak. i'm never good at picking a screenname anyway =]
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