Monday, September 8, 2008
No major changes...Yet
As many of you noticed, NHC slightly shifted the track a little back to the north, but most models still take aim on the upper Texas coast. However, unlike Gustav, the models seem to be shifting on every run and it's still 5+ days from landfall. I thought the Weather Channel's comparing Ike to Frederic was interesting. If you remember Frederic(1979) came off Cuba and headed right for us BUT he shifted (like Ivan) and turned to Mobile Bay sparing us. We still have plenty of time to watch this and I'll have another update this evening.
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29 comments:
Seems like unless the atmosphere, sea temps, and all the other conditions for past hurricanes are exactly as they are for Ike now, that historical tracks really don't mean much. That would be like comparing one tornado track in Kansas to possible tracks tornados may take in the future. I think a major track change is in the near future, esp once Ike gets Cuba over with.
Ike has become the attention of everyone. My cousin this weekend already booked a hotel room and the closest she could find was Memphis. Now what does that tell you? Some people are already getting scared about this storm. I know some hotels may still have people in them from Gustav but I believe it is due to Ike. I just hope that this storm stays on the westward motion and stays far away from us. Have a safe trip Bob and I look forward to having you back on the air.
Hi Bob!
I know that you are hoping it comes here to Texas, but I'm NOT! We live in the Woodlands, North of Houston...Are you thinking it may hit Houston? If it does, HOW do you think that would affect us here? I'm getting nervous...been through LOTS of hurricanes in LA (not even here for 2 yrs yet)...BUT Please let me know what you think...The weather and news aren't that great here. So any help will do...I trust what you say....I mean, would we have to evacuate?
Thanks :)
Ike looks ill to me, lol!
Just dropped by to see what's new...NOTHING, it seems...
Let's see what Ike and the models show tomorrow..:)
-Stormzz
Well, Tina did say that Ike drank too much...he's walkin backwards, forwards....lol!
Long as he isn't comin' to our house! :)
-Stormzz
The blog is quiet today: Everyone is waiting to see what Ike does with Cuba or what Cuba does with Ike. Not much has changed in the forecast track and models take it past MS and New Orleans, at least longitudinally. I guess I won't be relaxed until it gets to that point that if it were to turn, it wouldn't be "as bad". At least I have work to distract me today - Boring government teleconference LOL. (yes I am a GS type LOL). I think I am going to go home this afternoon and have a margarita and look for my lost shaker of salt.
Oh but alas, there is that little thing I have called a business that I run when I am not at work :-). However, luckily lots of people and business need their computers fixed and the distractions are the only thing that have kept me from going totally bonkers about Ike.
Not that I am an alarmist.... But you know how it is living on the gulf coast. I am hoping we will get back to a cycle with a lower number of storms. Is that too much to ask for!?
Everyone have a great evening!
BTW - Bob or Bob's webmaster: Can you modify your blog to show Central Time vice Pacific Time?
Time zone fixed.
Hello Bob, what do you think the change has been with everyone leaving? I'm 39 lived here all my life and we never left for a storm when I was a kid. My parents have lived here all there lives and they never got out of dodge either. Until it seems the last 15 years that we all "get out" I watch and trust you very much. You came to St. Louis king of France in Bucktown when I was in the 5th grade to release a weather balloon!! lol so been watching you a while!!
I'm liking what IKE'S doing. Still watching closely, but it's nice to see this southerly path...
Don't wish Ike on Texas, but Houston has had a break, huh? We have had ENOUGH!!
Bob, you had me worried when you said that you didn't have another storm in you this year...you've out weathered most...
But we don't have another one in us either!
Keep going THAT way, Ike...
Stormzz
Caveman,
I hope you're wrong. Nobody listens to a caveman anyway!! Bob...Tell us what Ike's going to do!!
The latest track is out and the models are clustering in closer agreement (kinda like they did with Gustav five days out). Track is still towards Houston or a little south. Not good for our friends in Texas, but good for us if it holds. Will this be another that is nailed by NHC at five days? Let's hope so. I will be happy when it goes by.
Hey!
I was just looking at the "Current US Fronts" map on Weather Underground. This front that was coming in our direction is beginning to have some stationary features to it. I am wondering if it is going to stall??? If so, what effect will that have on Ike?
there is an interesting post on gulfcoastwx.com that denotes that upper level highs are dissipating and may pull Ike back toward the LA coast rather than stay on its westward path. Have you seen this? can you validate or confirm this trend?
Take a Hike, IKE!
"The new set of model runs is portraying stronger high pressure over the central Gulf on Wednesday and Thursday will push Ike faster than expected to the west. The trough of low pressure expected to turn Ike to the north does not arrive until Friday night, after the storm has already made landfall in Texas. The timing and strength of this trough, plus the speed with which Ike moves across the Gulf this week are still uncertain. We cannot be confident yet of a Texas landfall until we see several model runs in row that lock in on this solution. All five major models--the GFS, UKMET, GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF--foresee a landfall between Corpus Christi and Port Arthur. The GFDL model foresees landfall as a Category 2, and the HWRF as a Category 3. Landfall could be as early as Friday afternoon, or as late as Saturday morning." Dr. Masters
So if Ike slows down we may get Ike at our front door.
I think that shocking track forcast change is coming on Tuesday... Ike has "wobbled"
gee, caveman, if only the National Hurricane Center had the benefit of your expetise, we could just dispense with all of these silly models and forcasts, since you, obviously, caveman, are the lone voice of reason and knowledge. isn't there a wildfire,earthquake, or lottery number you can predict somewhere?
Caveman did call and predict Gustav over a week out within 100 miles at landfall! Caveman did say Ike would enter the Gulf shortly after he first developed! I have Caveman models that I scratch onto the stone walls of my cave, so hundred years from now they will be discovered.
Lets wait and see if Caveman's prediction of Ike heading more north east towards Louisiana in few days holds true, hope he does not but feel he will.
whatever
Caveman i think you will be wrong this time and i hope you are and you to because we do not need this right now jobs, money people need to get on with thier lifes so lets hope you not right this time be good
I hate to scare people here, but after looking at the models, examining the water vapor loop, and, well.. some good old fashion voodoo I feel it is my duty to let everyone know that Ike will leave Cuba.(here is the scarey part) It will cross over Mexico and threatin the Greater Los Angeles area before the month is out. So please don't panic, but please DO NOT goto California.
Ya'll relax and let Bob due his job!!!
beau, return to your cave.
You know caveman. I thought you approached your predictions through science. But I must say, yesterday or the day before, someone posted that Ike wobbled and you dismissed it as "cycloid" regeneration of the eye. Now, the eye was over water when this "wobble" of yours occured. Is that cycloid regeneration, or are you so intent upon scaring folks here? simple question.You ought to just say it, like the weather channel should. You hope the thing comes here. Be honest, just say it. Not meaning to attack, but good grief man, leave the predicting to the experts.
There are NO hurricane experts.
The models have been on a continual westward trend for the better part of 4 days, really, with the reason being, as I understand that Ike did not feel the influence of one trough, which has exited the scene to the east, and ridging has built back in. The one model run that was counter to that was apparently a mishap and was dismissed by the professionals.
If you're going to predict a change in track now or a change in how the model shifts have been trending now, how about articulating a reason beyond just "wobbling?"
The professionals and supercomputers have had lots of opportunity to gather data and analyze it. We're getting very close to the point, as in the storm should now be about roughly halfway through tracking through Cuba or even beyong that, where the only shifts in the forecast don't figure to be so large.
Also, if you say that it's going to be like how things changed when Hurricane Rita hit that may well be, however, with the current trend going so far south and west the window for late surprise changes in the forecast track for points as drastic to the east as SE La./Miss. has to be considered as closing down somewhat.
Thinks of the movie Forrest Gump.....You call this a storm!!!
The 11pm track now has Ike making landfall somewhere around Corpus Christi. So I think Caveman can go take a powder for the time being, with this wobble thing.
I've watched the track continually tick west for the past three days, and it seems more and more likely that this storm will impact Texas. If things do not change drastically, we will probably be able to watch it go by in the Gulf.
BOB, I have to laugh... you are a diehard weatherman... you are on a vacation, and you still blog. Thanks for being committed!
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