Life Journey Often Rocky...

While another strong cold front will sweep thru by Saturday mid day bringing back sweaters and jackets, my thoughts tonight are with my wife's family . Brenda's step-Dad has passed away at the age of 82 after a long illness. Robert Olney was a giant of a man even though I only knew him for 6 years. He rose from being a salesmen at 3-M Company(Scotch tape, post-it-notes) in the late 40s to become President of 3-M Europe by the mid 70s. I respect a man who works hard to achieve, who transforms himself from being a follower to becoming a leader. Bob Olney was that type of person. He was not my Father, but I would be proud to have him as my Father. May he rest in peace as I am a better Bob for knowing this Bob.

My concern is freezing temperatures will certainly affect the Northshore Monday & Tuesday mornings, but some spots on the Southshore could reach freezing away from Lake P. Keep up on this system as it heads our way for Sat-Sunday.

Bob in costume

Photos from Mardi Gras

This Isn't Golf...

Geez folks, lighten up. Many of you are missing the point...which was that most local weathercaster's claim it's MY FORECAST when all they are doing is repeating what the NWS puts out. Of course we all use NWS data, which called for a 20-30% chance for rain last Tuesday. I included that in MY Official Endymion forecast. The NWS forecast on Friday increased the rain probabilities to 40% by Friday & 50% by Saturday. In reality, 100% saw rain late Saturday. What I told the Krewe 4 days earlier was that the parade would see no rain. All floats made it to the SuperDome without getting wet. 19 out of 24 got inside before the showers arrived. By that time, all parade watchers were on their way home.

Regarding VIPIR being WRONG...that is incorrect. As I pointed out on Thursday, VIPIR was keeping the heaviest rains offshore and to our north. If you recall the last front had a line of heavier showers that came across the Northshore and Lake P. but fizzled before they made the Southshore (Hummm, I believe the NWS models were wrong on that one). I believed this front might do the same and said so. I took a stance. It turned out mostly correct, but I'm man enough to admit more rain was with the front than I expected. From me you know you'll get what I think. If that bothers you...if all you want is what NWS or NHC thinks, then go on their internet websites or watch the other channels. I didn't get the highest market favorable research by being afraid to fail. Just like in golf, some putts go in, some lip out, but you can't be afraid to fail or you'll never succeed.

This is MY Forecast...

Since I have most Fridays off, I get an opportunity to watch all channels. I find it amusing to hear..."this is MY Forecast" and then go to the National Weather Service's web site and find the SAME forecast. Now I'm not opposed to using NWS data, but give credit to where it's from. To say MY FORECAST is calling for 40% chance of rain and then find the SAME info from the NWS is like stealing. Go to the NOAA site that produces 7 day temp. forecasts and you'll see the same thing on almost everybody's 7 day forecast. Why does that "bug" me? Because it seems everyone is married to model data and is afraid to vary from it for fear of being wrong.

Take this coming weekend. Model data is calling for some showers late Sat. PM into early Sunday. I indicated as early as last Tuesday (Krewe of Endymion forecast) that Saturday's cold front would come thru dry. (Remember the last front had showers approach us and move as close as the Northshore before fizzling before reaching the Southshore.) This next front I believe will do the same. Moisture is limited, the upper energy is far to our north, the axis of the upper trough pulls to our east and it's a fast mover. All point to the front coming thru us with rain chances so low so as not to include them in MY forecast, which I didn't last night. Tonight eveyone is call for 20-40% chance for rain. Why? Because that's what the model data is calling for. I grew up outside Chicago back in the '60s with John Coleman & Harry Volkman challenging each other & the NWS forecast. Now days, no one seems able to "stick their neck out" and go against NWS & the models. After seeing tonight's new model runs, I'm staying with my forecast issued on Tuesday...Saturday evening will see NO RAIN for Endymion. The difference here versus those crazy 50-100 year "predictions" regarding Global Warming is simple. You'll know within 24 hours if MY FORECAST verified. Hail Endymion!

Parade Weather...one wet night?

It appears the advertized pattern shift will bring us only 3 rain chances over the next 7 days. The best(highest) chance happens with a cold front late Wednesday afternoon & evening. It will be sharply colder for Thursday & Friday, but zero chance for rain as the dry air comes back. Another front arrives late Saturday, but Gulf moisture will be limited so rain chances Sat. pm only 10-20%. Very Cold for Sunday & Monday but again zaro chance for rain. Carnival day will be warmer with rain chances going up late in the day, more likely after dark. All is all, if you don't mind the chill and dress for it, most parades will roll without rain.

Some freezing temps may return to the Northshore behind these next fronts. Don't plant the tomatoes yet!

Probabilities? Huh?

Perhaps you've noticed I rarely use precipitation probabilities. The past 2 days were classic examples. 1) The public doesn't understand them & 2) they often overplay rain chances. Probabilities are POINT forecasts...which means if there is a 40% chance for rain, that means AT YOUR LOCATION. But how many of us stay at one location all day? We go to the store, go to church, go to work etc. As soon as you start moving around, you increase your rain chances. Most folks don't understand that concept.

If you watched or listened to the weather forecast for this weekend, rain chances were 60-80%, which technically verified. However, there were many hours of dry weather. A better forecast would have been..."there is 100% chance for some rain during the over night & early morning hours with little chance for rain (20%) during the daylight hours." Specificity counts. Beware of 50% chance for rain. That doesn't tell you much.

Computer Models Worthless...

As I pointed out in my last blog, computer guidance has difficulty handling southern stream energy. In fact, watching all the morning weather programs showing various computer models and what they forecast...none of them had this morning's rain/T-storms over Baton Rouge in the right place. Soooo, why would you trust what the models are predicting (widespread rainfall) when they don't verify initially? As I said last night, there is 100% chance for rain today, BUT most of that would be to our north and east. Translation, unless something develops during daytime heating (possible), the kick off of Family Gras in Jefferson & most of tonight's parades should be OK. I have not changed my thinking regarding this weekend. A cool front will stagger thru Saturday morning with some showers, but by midday we should turn drier. That front will stall along the coast and bring back a shower threat for Sunday. Hopefully most of the rain stays south of the city and offshore as that front will pull away to our east for Monday. Is it gonna be a perfect weekend like last weekend? Nope, but then I don't see it raining all the time either.

Several Stormy Periods Coming...

A fast WSW upper flow is causing me to have little confidence in model guidance for the next 5-7 days. The models do OK with northern latitude energy, but have difficulty with disturbances in the southern (sub-tropical) jet stream. NWS is using words like "STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL..." for Friday's storms as a warm front lifts northward from the Gulf. What do I see? I see models flip flopping with each run giving me little confidence on the timing of rain events. With such strong winds aloft forecast for Friday, we could see some strong storms, but I feel the severe stuff will again be north of Lake P. Hopefully most of the rain will end before 3 PM so the evening parades & Jefferson's Family Gras will go off mostly dry? A cold front pushes thru Sat. AM with some showers, but most of Saturday should turn out dry. Sunday is another forecasting problem. I think it is pure folly to let on that we have much skill in forecasting that far out with such an upper air pattern. I'll try again tomorrow.

Stormy AM...Severe Staying North?

NWS is saying 3 tornadoes have touched down tonight. It's the 1st severe weather outbreak for 2009. I'm told at this same date last year, the tornado counts was 289 ! It appears the stronger upper level winds will remain across central & north Louisiana and that's where the strongest storms should stay. My thinking is the line of storms will be much weaker the farther south one goes with the arrival time being between 7-10 AM. By noontime we may start to see clearing skies and with west winds and drier air, temperatures should climb well into the mid to upper 70s. Thusday will see lots of sun but another upper system approaches on Friday bringing back PM rain chances. Saturday looks dry & cooler with another upper system coming for late Sunday into early Monday. Timing of these systems is crucial for this weekend's parades. Jefferson Parish's Family Gras kicks off Friday night and continues into Sunday. With many notable singers & a craft fair, they need dry weather. Stayed tuned. Colder air returns for next week.

Severe Weather Awareness Week...

With no real cold air in sight for the next 7-10 days, our attention will shift more & more from the threat of freezing temperatures to the threat of severe weather. Beginning on Monday, NWS has designated in Louisiana & Mississippi...Severe Weather Awareness Week. Just like Hurricane season, we have a "season" where tornadoes & damaging winds are more likely to happen. That period for us is mid February into early April. After that, the threat shifts farther to the north as the Jet Stream retreats away from us. The most important thing to have in your home is a NOAA Severe Weather Alert Radio. They can be programmed for a specific parish or county & can be purchased for about $30. Since severe(killer) storms often happen at night, these radios can provide some life saving extra minutes to awake you and allow you time to take cover. Fortunately, we rarely see the kinds of tornadoes that hit farther to our west & north.

In the short term, it appears the deep dips (meridional) in the upper air across the eastern states will relax & turn mainly west to east (Zonal) for awhile. Great news for us because each day allows the higher sun angle do its magic and make it less likely we will see a major freeze for the rest of this season. That doesn't mean you can go plant your tomatoes. We still have plenty time for more frosts & light freezes. As the warm air returns, I do expect fog to start to be a problem depending on the wind speeds.

Freeze Tonight...Big Weekend Warm Up !

As discussed yesterday, a major pattern shift in the upper air will cut off the cold air flow over the SE and I see no cold fronts coming until next Wed. or Thursday. That front should be of Pacific origins so it won't be like the cold air we have now, which is from the Arctic. Over night lows will depend on the winds...if they go near calm...Southshore will dip to 27-31 with the Northshore 20-25. Full precautions Northshore...Southshore should protect pets, plants & people. If the winds stay up just a little bit (5-10 mph) Southshore might stop 30-35. Tomorrow will be 55-60, Friday 65-70, Sat-Wed 70+. We'll then have to worry about dense fog.

I'm enjoying Global Warming Alarmists, like my old school (Univ. of Michigan) Jeff Masters trying to explain why the Planet is cooling when atmospheric CO2 keeps increasing. Remember they(Al Gore etc) predicted doom & gloom...ice caps melting, sea levels rising, disease spreading yada, yada, yada. A couple of points regarding Dr. Masters' temperature charts. He excluded Dr. Roy Spenser's (Univ. of Alabama Earth System Science Center) temp. charts that show more cooling than the other 3 Dr. Masters focuses on. Go do a Google search on Dr. Spenser & see what he says regarding GW. He has a great book about the hoax of CO2 & global warming

Pattern Change Coming...Again

We have seen 2 very distinct upper air patterns this winter. There was the West Coast trof that brought snow to Seattle & Portland for days back in Dec with the other being the deep East Coast trof that has brought the coldest winter to most of the Great Lakes. With the big shifts in the upper flow come big changes in temperatures. Tonight the East Coast trof has passed us and is NOT digging anymore. That means the core of the cold will again stay to our north & east keeping the pipe-busting freezes away from us. A huge warm up will occur this weekend as the West cools down and turns wet while we see highs return to 70+. Of course with warmer air will come the fog potential so we'll be watching for that by Sunday.

Finally a major science magazine (SKY & TELESCOPE) has an article in their March issue regarding what MIGHT BE causing our current warming cycle...which appears to have slowed or stopped. There is a lengthy discussion on past solar cycles & their effect on our Planet (cooling & warming). I would hope our new President is exposed to this information. There is NO SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS regarding this debate. The AGW alarmist want you to believe that, but finally a major science journal presents the other side. Debate means there is discussion. So far the media has given mainly one side of the debate. Go read on line.