No Erika Yet...

Looking at the latest daylight (visible) satellite loop from the central Atlantic, it appears a low level circulation is trying to form. There remains a lot of wind shear just north of it and most models just don't do much with it. Even IF Erika forms, the east coast troughs keep coming and that should mean another turn to the north, east of the U.S. just like Bill & Danny. I cannot remember a summer where the upper air pattern has remained basically intact from June thru September. It appears the longer nights in Canada already are building colder and colder air (Int'l Falls hit 32 degrees this AM !) that is following front after front into the lower 48. We will have a weak front push thru overnight with a stronger surge arriving later this week. Does it mean we are home free for this hurricane season? Of course not! But if we keep these fronts coming, it becomes less likely that a major hurricane (causing evaculations) will affect the Gulf. My gut still tells me IF we are to have a threat this year, it will come from something forming down in the Gulf along one of these fronts. 31 days until October...come on Fall...keep coming on down early.