Yea it took awhile but the wait was worth it. I left N.O. last Thursday during record heat (90+) to spend a weekend in Ann Arbor at my old University. Arriving in Detroit, temperatures were in the 40s with a North wind 10-20 mph making it feel in the 30s. Burrr...but I was dressed for it. How pleasant it felt when I returned late this afteroon & temps were in the 60s. Now this is October! It will warm back up this week & the muggies will return, but another front should arrive by Friday with more good feel air. Didn't know I'd enjoy wearing sweaters again, but I really did.
How exciting to see the Satellite view of the Gulf tonight showing the cold air has penetrated all the way down into the Yucatan. There is a flair up of clouds in the Caribbean, but we are totally protected now with strong upper westerly winds over most the the Gulf. Did you notice the snow in Boston today? It's shaping up to be an early, cold & long winter up north. However, NOAA's 90 day outlook indicates there is a 60% chance for ABOVE normal/average temperatures from the northern plains to the upper Great Lakes. Unlike the GW alarmist's predictions, we'll be able to verify NOAA's 90 day outlook. I'll see ya all Monday on FOX 8 at 5 PM.
8 comments:
Hurricane Rick's remnants will likely be our next big weather event. Having the potential of bring our area some Heavy Rain and maybe even some severe weather. I'll have more about it in the morning.
The European Model is once again presenting a Tropical Cyclone forming in the Southern Caribbean, although not nearly as bullish as it was in yesterday mornings run. This time the model is only showing a Tropical Storm impacting Cuba and then the Florida Peninsula. Also, This mornings 00Z CMC is showing a little bit of support for the ECMWF developing a Tropical Depression.
Today will be our final day of fall weather until Saturday and tomorrow the muggies will return to South-East Louisiana as the Area of High Pressure over us this morning propagates East which will help establish return flow. After a day or so of Southerly Flow showers and thunderstorms will move back into the forecast for Wednesday and by then we will back up to near 80F for highs. Here is where it gets fun. On Thursday Rain chances will go up as a sharp Upper Level Trough approaches the area from the west and this will be accompanied by a Cold front. Not only will we have Moisture from the Gulf feeding into the Trough but it looks like the moisture from Hurricane Rick will also be fed into the system. This in my opinion raises my concern for some sort of a heavy rainfall event for our area Thursday and Thursday night into Friday Morning. There may even some Severe Weather as the models are indicating the Upper Trough will become Negatively Tilted as it passes our area to the North. But there is a light at the end of the Tunnel. Right now it looks to me like the Cold Front will pass through our area Mid-Day Friday. This will once again cause Cool and Dry air to advect into our area just in time for the weekend. The Air Mass won't be quite as cold as the one we are in at this present time but it will do the Job and it will definitely feel like Fall again in South-East Louisiana this upcoming weekend.
ONLYREAL
Both the GFS and the Euro are continuing to show the development of a tropical system in the Caribbean. A trough is going to dig and push the system to Florida and the trough is going to bring us a big chill.
I keep reading about..."the EMCWF or the GFS shows..." Let me caution everyone regarding use of computer models. The farther south one goes, the less accurate they become. Sure, something MIGHT form in the Caribbean later this week, but it can't threaten the U.S. as long as the fronts keep coming...and another one is coming for late Thursday or early Friday. I'll use a graphic on FOX 8 at 9 PM showing that after Oct. 15th, Only 5 Cat. 3 or higher hurricanes entered the Gulf with NONE affecting TX, LA, MS or AL
I agree with you, Bob. I seriously doubt that anything coming out of the Caribbean would reach the Northern Gulf Coast this late in the game. If this were to develop I would expect this to take a very climatological track. Which would mean anyone South of 25N would need to pay attention to this(South Florida, Cuba, Caymans, Jamaica, and the Southern Bahamas).
I never said it was going to affect the gulf coast. I was simply stating what the models were showing. Thats why I said S. Florida would probably be affected if anything forms. Nothing might form at all.
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