Yea I know that's the Hornet's slogan, but I used it today when I addressed students in the Meteorology program at the University of Michigan. This weekend is the 40th anniversary of the Engineering class of 1969. My Pride is my University, Michigan, the leader & best. My Purpose remains being the best weathercaster/educator that I can be. If you have watched me for nearly 32 years, my Passion remains obvious. I am enjoying life right now despite the fact it's 41 degrees outsides. I'm gonna watch Michigan in Da Big House tomorrow just like back in the late 60s, plus I'm with 2 of my college roommates, one a successful engineer & the other a respected surgeon. I've had some negatives in my life, but right now I'm very grateful for all the creator has given me. I feel like I'm one of The VICTORS. Hail Michigan !
I'm told the chill has arrived back in N.O. Enjoy cause in another 4-6 weeks we'll be complaining about..."it's too cold"...Yikes! See you Monday.
22 comments:
The NAM develops the flare up on the South-West Caribbean and brings it northward by Day 4. The NAM is the only model showing this solution at this time. The GFS only shows an increase of moisture in the Southwest Caribbean during this period of time. I would prefer the GFS's solution for the time being because none of the other guidance shows development in the SW Caribbean in this time period. Nonetheless I will keep an eye on it.
Oh Paaaalease....in today's political climate why should we expect any less...
This takes the prize folks....Quoting our beloved paper today "A group of Mississippi landowners can pursue their lawsuit against more than 30 major oil electric and coal companies they say have created global-warming pollutants that contributed to the rising sea levels and increased Hurricane Katrina's destruction."
Since we are thinking on this level lets continue.
Why would you sue Oil companies?...Is the act of just drilling for oil causing global warming???. No...According to such pundants woundn't that be the use of oil that causes this so called GW. So who and what is the biggest use/comsumption of oil production??? Automobiles...so why your at it why not Sue the Automobile industry...say General Motors...and who owns the majority of GM today...The U.S. Government.
Thank goodness its cold today because I can go outside and cool off.
ONLYREAL, just like you mentioned in an earlier posting, we could have a heavy rain event 6 to 7 days out. It looks like the low pressure from Hurricane Rick could move over the Northern Gulf Coast. Do you think we will still have a lot of rain?
Yes Wxbug, There is a possibility that once Rick makes landfall in Baja California it will get caught in the Sub-Tropical Jet and its remnants will get carried quickly to the East. The models have backed off on this solution a tad bit. If it does happen we would have to worry about some heavy rain and severe weather. I will be keeping a very close eye on the situation since it could be our next big rainmaker.
Awesome Bob, I'm glad you went to school to set your foundation and you gained the ability to live your life happy and on deserved terms. I recently enrolled at UNO to see if my dream of teaching high school could become a reality. All looks good and I'm happier then I've ever been in the pursuit.
I hope everything goes well for you Baxter. What do you plan on teaching?
Well, The 12Z ECMWF has jumped the bandwagon with the NAM on development in the SW Caribbean. It develops the System in 3-4 Days and moves it North-East toward Jamaica then Cuba as a strengthening Hurricane. Then the Storm misses the Trough to its North and gets pushed to the west for a short period of time South of the Cuban Coast then it reaches the Western Periphery of the ridge in the Mid-Atlantic causing it to move Northward crossing Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico and then shows the system impacting South-Central Florida as a large Major Hurricane. I am surprised such a good model like the European Model shows such a solution. I will be very interested to see if the 00Z runs shows this as well. I will also be interested to see if other models other than the NAM and European Models begin showing similar solutions as well.
Its hard to believe that there might be a tropical system in the southeast gulf. The wind shear may be too strong but it should be interesting.
The ECMWF shows shear penetrating the Gulf in a way that it would not have any negative effects on the system or I would doubt the ECMWF would be so bullish on a TC. If the Upper Level Trough Axis is positioned on the northern edge of the cyclone like the ECMWF is exhibiting then that would help with an outflow jet on the northern side of the System which would allow intensification.
The 12Z NOGAPS also develops a Tropical Cyclone in the Southern Caribbean but is about a day slower than the ECMWF Model.
"...WITH 180 MPH WINDS...RICK BECOMES THE SECOND STRONGEST EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD AFTER LINDA OF 1997..."
WOW! I hope cooler SST's and Vertical Wind Shear from the approaching Trough knock some of the punch out of this system before it impacts Baja California. Rick has very circular Core and its eye is very well defined and it a classic example of a Category 5 Hurricane. I wouldn't be surprised if this thing cranked to 190-200mph Range and fall below 900MB in the next 18 Hours. The reasoning behind this is that Rick is in a perfect environment( Low Shear, High OHC, and is embedded in a deep moisture envelope) and Microwave Imagery shows no signs of an upcoming Eye Wall Replacement Cycle or any internal structural changes at the moment.
The 00Z ECMWF develops the system in the a similar fashion to the 12Z run ie. a Major Hurricane. The only difference is that in this run the Model brings the cyclone a bit more to the west propagating the system towards the Florida Panhandle.
May I clarify that the ECMWF Model is the only model showing this solution at the moment and there is no imminent threat. The solution the model is presenting is highly unlikely based on climatology alone, for example and Bob has pointed this out numerous times, a Hurricane has never made Landfall on the Louisiana Coast during November in recorded history. The only reason this solution is even noteworthy is because the ECMWF(European Model) is historically very accurate and has been the best performing Model this Hurricane Season.
Where do you get your weather forecasting info, ONLYREAL?
Wxbug,
A simplified list of what I use would be Surface Observations, Sounding Data, Aviation Data, Satellite Imagery&Data, Radar Imagery, Short, Medium, and Long Range Computer Models(generally look for consensus, and teleconnections. Some of the stuff I know I have learned over many years, and some of the things I know I have learned in the past year from studying Meteorology.
ONLYREAL, did you get my friends request?
Whew...
The 12Z European Model drops the system and only shows a broad area of low pressure developing and moving into Central America. Significant change from the previous runs.
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