All signs tonight point to several stormy periods during the day on Thursday into early Friday morning. This next front is not going to roar thru...in fact, we'll continue with upper SW flow into early Saturday which means clearing out the clouds and rain will be a slow process. Keep up on the weather as we could see 1-3" (NWS says 2-4") of rain that we don't need. With 10 days left in October, we've already exceeded the normal/average (3.05") by over an inch.
On a side note, the Saints are playing in Miami on Sunday. There is the possibility of some tropical moisture ,currently in the southern Caribbean, moving northward across Cuba and affecting south FLA. over the weekend. You can watch it all on FOX 8 Sunday beginning at 3 PM.
Finally, for the younger generation, don't place too much value on computer models beyond 5 days. Otherwise you'll start believing they can predict 50-100 years ahead! FYI...the earliest first freeze in Kenner 31 degrees Nov. 1, 1993. Audubon Park's 1st freeze 30 degrees Nov. 3 1966. Need some snow cover over the northern plains before I start buying into freezing weather here.
14 comments:
I want a freeze, but I know that when it comes I will want the warm. I'm human, try and sue me. I did want to ask you Bob, can any faith be put into long range forecasting? I poke around the weather sites, not really a weather person or trying to be one, but I have noticed long ranges do not go past 15 days.
Bob,
I have class tonight at 6pm, when can I expect the rain around our area?
I am sure Bob is busy and ONLYREAL might not be home yet. Looking at the radar, it will probably start raining within the hour and rain through about 7:00 tonight. After that it should quite down. Hope this helps! (hope I am right!)
quiet down. sorry:(
Hey Greg, yes it does help. I'll just bring my umbrella to class.
Thanks
HI, BOB. I NOTICED AS I WAS VIEWING THE GULF WATER TEMPS A PLACE ABOUT 250 MILESSOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES THAT READS 88 DEGREES. THAT SEEMS QUITE ODD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, ESPECIALLY BECAUSE THE TEMPERATURE IN THAT AREA HAS RISEN IN COMPARISON WITH LAST WEEK'S READINGS. THIS WORRIES ME BECAUSE I DON'T THINK IT CAN BE EXPLAINED BY ATMOSPHERIC HEAT AND PRESSURE. IT SEEMS TO ME THAT THE SOURCE OF THE TEMPERATURE RISE MUST BE COMING FROM BENEATH THE SURFACE.DO WE HAVE HOT SPRINGS FROM A VOLCANIC SOURCE COMING FORTH IN THE GULF? IF SO, IS THERE SEISMIC DANGER RESULTING FROM THIS OCCURRENCE?
So Bob, when do you think we are going to have a first real cold blast?
The Models are coming into agreement of a Strong Upper Level Disturbance rapidly developing to our west and racing off to the North-East Monday Night into Tuesday. If this indeed occurs expect a round of Severe Weather to move through our area sometime on Tuesday. Then expect another round of Severe Weather later on in the week on Thursday and Friday as a deepening Long-Wave Upper Level Trough approaches our area. Its questionable at this time on whether or not the Cold Front accompanied with the Trough is able to penetrate our area for next weekend.
I am surprised that only two days ago models were predicting a trough to move through with a few showers (20% chance of rain) and now the NWS has 50-60% coverage of thunderstorms for Monday night into Tuesday.
Actually the ECMWF has been hinting on the Monday/Tuesday outbreak since Wednesday 12Z run; long before other Global Models. Gotta love the Euro!
I have to say, the European model is one of the best.
The European model has been performing exceptionally well lately. In spite of how good it is, however, you always have to remember it is just a model and that it is only guidance to your thinking for your forecast and should not be treated as gospel.
All indications still point to the potential for a possible round of Severe Weather and Heavy Rain Monday Night into Tuesday Morning.
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