Yesterday it appeared for sure our current dry spell would end on Sunday. However, each new model run shows there is so much dry air (low dew points) covering the northern Gulf that we will stay dry both Saturday & Sunday. In addition, if whatever is left of IDA takes the NHC track to our south and east, we would stay on the dry side of that system. The key thing to watch over the weekend is the direction of the surface wind. If winds start to veer around to the SE, then we are likely to see some rain. If the winds back more to the North, then more drier air will filter in over us. You should not be concerned at all with IDA since the wind shear forecast over the northern Gulf Sunday thru Tuesday is 40-50 kts. If the shear doesn't tear the storm apart, the strong upper flow will turn it far to our south and east. The next front arrives on Tuesday sweeping away any leftover moisture caused by IDA.
Enjoy your weekend, and if you live out of town, try watching our video streaming Sat & Sunday. We will try to show the Big Regatta on Lake Pontchartrain where 9 different Yacht Clubs will be racing. With breezy conditions expected, racing should be great.
2 comments:
Bob I disagree with you. I think SELA is going to have heavy rains and winds in excess of 40 mph. According to the GFS we could have 4+ inches and Ida, as the track was shifted slightly north, may come closer than expected.
Weatherbug...you must have watched Dr. Lyons on TWC this morning as that was one of his scenarios. this AM VIPIR run agrees. I'll have more shortly on my blog update.
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