Thursday, December 17, 2009
Gunning For # 1...
Tonight's rainfall at MSY (.85 thru 9 PM) has blown us by the 2nd wettest month (Oct. 1888) and now we have less than 2 inches to go before we reach the wettest month ever for the City of New Orleans (25.11" 1937). Looking down the road, we should have 2 more opportunities to surpass that total so December 2009 will end up as the number one wettest month ever. As I look out the next 7-10 days, models are forecasting some real cold air (freezes) heading our way. As several of you have already mentioned, IF the timing is right...we could see some of the white stuff before we enter 2010. If you haven't done all your winterizing around your house, this is the weekend to get it done...before the Saint's game of course! Score? Did you say score? My prediction...Saints 38 Cowboys 24. Go Saints!
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18 comments:
Just like the rain, the Saints are gunning for #1!!! Like your Saints prediction Bob, I think the Saints are going to blow out the Cowboys. Gut Feeling.... Can't wait to get down there on Saturday.
When you think about all this rain...I mean 48 is not to far away from the temperature we need to see snow..just imagine if we had a cold snap with all this Precip that we'd snow 3 and 4 times in one season....maybe I am just dreaming like a Superbowl victory!!!
Goooo Saints.
32 is freezing....
Hey Bob, I gotta question: are the models accurate with picking up on these gulf lows? Because if i remember correctly this last Low kinda "surprised" some at the last minute (meaning we didn't know til 3 days before)... Now i see REALLY cold air in some of the long range models for Christmas and the days after... could that cold air come down and shut off the southern jet, or can that southern jet still kick-up a few Lows that could surprise everybody?
Bob,
Speaking of cold air, what do you think the EX-Stream media would report if there was a bunch of those global warming "deniers" holding a rally and the temperature got to around 110 degrees? You know what that answer is.
So, there's Brian Willams on NBC Nightly News with a reporter last night in Copenhagen. She was standing in a snow storm. I nearly fell off my chair laughing.
It was hilarious.
Caveman...I hope you are not stating that it has to be 32 degrees to snow. I have been in a 38 degree snowfall and a 42 degree sleetstorm!
In a nutshell to make snow there has to be water vapor present in the form of clouds. The temperature in this cloud has to be below freezing throughout the could to form snow flakes. (32degrees F, 0 degrees C).If only a portion of the cloud is below freezing, and strong updrafts, hail will form. Surface temp is not a factor for the development of snow, as temperature decreases with altitude, usually about 2 degrees per 1000 feet on avg. this means that snow can form on a warm day, as long at the temps in the clouds are below freezing. The problem is that when the snow falls from a cloud, the temperature all the way to the ground has to be at or below freezing to keep it from melting. There is a phenomena called Virga, and pilots report it all the time, but there is no way to really detect it. Its when snow falls, but melts before hitting the ground, and can even evaporate entirely.
Also the colder air gets, the less water vapor it can hold, so really frigid days, the air is very dry, even though it might have a high humidity percentage. (Humidity is the ratio of water vapor air can hold vs, actual water vapor present). So on really really cold days, below 0 degrees F, the chance for snow is unlikely.
Any other questions?
WOW! December 2009 will be a month that won't be forgotten anytime soon.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1025 AM CST FRI DEC 18 2009
...UPDATED RECORD MONTHLY RAINFALL INFORMATION FOR THE NEW ORLEANS
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...
...ALL-TIME WETTEST MONTH FOR THE OFFICIAL REPORTING STATION IN NEW
ORLEANS DATING BACK TO 1871 IN JEOPARDY NEXT WEEK...
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
SINCE WEATHER RECORDS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AT THE LOUIS ARMSTRONG
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN KENNER DATING BACK TO 1947...THE WETTEST
SINGLE MONTH IS DECEMBER 2009. AS OF 900 AM CST...DECEMBER
18TH...THE AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED 24.93 INCHES OF MONTHLY RAINFALL.
THIS EXCEEDS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 21.18 INCHES SET IN MAY 1995...
AND IS MORE THAN DOUBLE THE PREVIOUS WETTEST DECEMBER WHICH WAS
10.77 INCHES IN 1967.
FOR THE ENTIRE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA...DATING BACK TO
1871...THE ALL TIME WETTEST MONTH STILL STANDS AT 25.11 INCHES IN
OCTOBER 1937...DUE LARGELY TO A SLOW MOVING TROPICAL STORM IN
EARLY OCTOBER OF THAT YEAR. THIS RECORD IS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN
AROUND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN
TO THE NEW ORLEANS AREA.
$$
I understand all of that. I also know that you know that temperature does not always decrease with altitude and that is why we have ice storms. Also, the air temp can be above freezing with snow falling and it can stick to grassy areas and objects exposed to the wind like cars and overpasses. Of course the air temperature will start to fall either through sublimation evaporation or even melting!
Again 32 degrees is freezing...
We have ice storms when a layer of warm air is between two layers of cold air. Frozen precipitation melts while falling into the warm air layer, and then proceeds to refreeze in the cold layer above the ground. If the precipitate is partially melted, it will land on the ground as sleet. To be considered an ice storm it usually has to accumulate to .25 of an inch. However, if the warm layer completely melts the precipitate, becoming rain, the liquid droplets will continue to fall, and pass through a thin layer of cold air just above the surface. This thin layer of air then cools the rain to a temperature below freezing ( 32 degrees is freezing!). However, the drops themselves do not freeze, a phenomenon called supercooling takes place which causes the water to immediately freeze when it hits items like branchs, bridges, pwr lines etc.. this is an ice storm. Of course snow can stick when the ground temp is not 32 degrees, but as soon as it does come in contact it is melting.
READ what I said. I know like everybody else that 32 degrees is freezing. You were responding to a post in a way that seemed to say that it can't snow unless it is 32 degress.(unless I interpreted wrong) I responded to the same post stating that it could snow ABOVE 32 degrees. Thats all.
Has to be at or very very close to 32 for snow to form...
Your wrong, Caveman. When you have some spare time read up on the "Wet Bulb Effect".
Greg I remember distinctly and have pictures of Dec 11 snowfall and the one thing I marveled at was the snow made for nice manicured lawns...because the grass was covered with snow and the sidewalk were wet. It left a nice sharp edge to lawns.
I also was dropping the kids off at school that morning and remember seeing the thermomater in the car. The temperature dropped the more I drove into the snow. So to me your Dec 18th post makes sense to me. I'd say it was accurate but I am not Bob.
Now in last years snow fall, obviously the sidewalks were warmer than the grassy area and the snow in the grassy area held tough and looked so neat...
Long term, am I catching this correctly? Best chances Tuesday 12/29 or New Year's Day????
Caveman...go away. I asked not to copy & paste. You refused so be gone. It's my blog. I'm tired of you. You add NO value whatsoever. My next update will be later today.
WHODAT!!!
Saints whip the Cowgirls 48-10
What happened to our Saints? They looked a bit flat. Perhaps alot of our regulars were injured.
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