We have completed one third of Meteorological Winter on a sunny & mild note. I hope you were out to enjoy the 65-70 degree warmth & clear blue skies Today because we may not see that kind of day for weeks. If you think we're gonna get out of our "El Nino" wet pattern, as Joe Impastato would say..."fergit about it!" Long range computer models continue to show more Gulf lows AND colder temperatures for the next 10-14 days. You snow freaks get ready cuz it sure looks like several possibilities to see frozen precip. right down to the Gulf Coast. Timing will be the key, but my thinking is late next week after Wednesday(gotta get deep into cold air) we could be in for some very interesting/exciting/dangerous weather over South LA & MS. My other concern is how cold will we get? This will be a perfect weekend to finally winterize your house & yard, if you haven't already. I have those covers for my outside faucets and I drain all hoses and bring them inside. Any tropcial plants should also be protected. Don't say you weren't warned ahead of time.
I have a funeral to attend tomorrow night & Saturday so I may not update my blog until Sunday. If you need a long range update, ask ONLYREAL . He'll be more than happy to tell you what the models are doing. Happy 2010 and Go Saints! Saints 27 Panthers 24 IF Brees & starters play.
16 comments:
Thanks Bob and Happy new year.
What precisely are "covers for outside faucets"? Something you can buy at Home Depot, or something you made? I'd love to have them.
OnlyReal,
What do you think about the chances of snow in the next couple of weeks??
LD,
I am not an expert on Pipe covering materials, but I can help. When Bob says "outside faucets" he means the faucets you use your hose with. When you get a hard freeze down here your outside pipes and faucets can become damaged if not protected. The cheapest way to protect your pipes is by wrapping them up with towels or some kind of insulated wrapping material. I am sure Home Depot or Lowes sells some kind of pipe protecting product, however, I am unsure of what the product is called.
-ONLYREAL
LD,
It is hard to explain but they sell an insulated device that slides over your faucet outside. It hooks to the valve and you tighten shut with a wingnut. Pretty cool idea.
ONLYREAL,
We need an update on the cold and snow!! Bob is out and he left it up to you!
Kathleen,
I will try to make this simple to understand.
Right now the best chance of snow for our area in the foreseeable future will be this upcoming Thursday/Thursday Night (January 7th). A bitterly cold arctic air-mass will be in place across the Southern US as a result of deep troughing across the Eastern US and several Canadian High Pressure systems.
On Thursday a Shortwave Trough will move through the Lower Mississippi River valley and will trigger the development of a Surface Low in the western Gulf of Mexico. This surface low will track through the waters of the north-central Gulf of Mexico bringing a round of precipitation to the Gulf Coast states and interior areas. I'm going with the ECMWF, GGEM models/ensembles which have been most consistent and I am going to say that temperatures at all layers will be favorable for frozen precipitation. Using MOS, 2M temperatures during that time period look to be in the 30's on the Southshore and 20's in areas North of Lake Pontchartrain. Using the tools that are available to me, I would say that 1-2 inches of snow could fall across the area Thursday/Thursday night.
Once the system passes another surge of cold air will bulldoze into the area bringing the coldest air of the winter and perhaps some of the coldest air in years to Southeast Louisiana.
This event is still 6 days away so there is still plenty of time for this forecast to change and become colder and snowier.
-ONLYREAL
There is a decent precipitation model run graphic on this site and even shows if it's ice or snow, so far we do have a snow line 1/7...
http://www.coolwx.com/ptype/
Only Real,
Thank you for the info. I have been reading your comments and forecasts for quite some time. I know that one day, when Bob retires, we will be watching you, or maybe on the Weather Channel. Nice to see someone young, so dedicated and knowing the career path to follow.
I lived in NYC for a few years and actually like the snow. I will be looking forward to the possibility.
Kathleen
Get ready folks!
I just looked at the 12Z guidance and I am still calling for sleet then light snow for the New Orleans metropolitan area Thursday Night as a Clipper System and associated Surface Low move through the area. Highs may not get above freezing Friday and Saturday with Lows in the teens and wind chill values could get as low as 0 Friday Night. The upper air environment looks remarkably similar to the 1989 Cold Outbreak during late next week.
-ONLYREAL
Ok... I did some research and the product used to cover the pipes and faucets outside in Freezing temperatures is called "Rubatex". It is a thin black piece of insulation you can put around the pipes. They appear to be cheap and you can find them at Home Depot or Lowes. Better do it soon before Mother Nature releases arctic hell across the South late next week.
-ONLYREAL
onlyreal,
Thanks for your replies. I went to Home depot and found what I need (I hope).
No real changes to my forecast. The models have trended a little colder and show more moisture than they did 24 hours ago.
-ONLYEREAL
No problem, LD. I am glad you found what you needed to protect your property.
Question.. Weather Channel has the high on Friday at 32, all the local stations have it at 40. Who's right?
Cara,
The arctic air-mass coming down towards us at the end of the work week will be extremely cold and it won't modify much due to the vast snow pack over the Mid-West and Southern Plains. On Friday we will be experiencing strong cold air advection. We will have a hard time getting above freezing on Friday, even if the sun is out.
me thinks ONLYREAL is right~!
ONLYREAL do you think you gonna be able to point out in a few days if the snow will start in the early afternoon or evening on Thursday?
I wanna do some photography if it does happen and I was trying to figure out if it will happen when there is still some light left,s ince it gets dark early now....Thanks so much, the outer pipes are wrapped and ready!!!
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