NWS has come out with a Winter Weather Advisory thru SUNDAY! They believe we could see a change over to sleet/snow Thursday (I think we'll be too warm). I believe our better chance comes on Saturday. Why? The cold that follows Thursday's cold front is much colder than what we have now and we'll be deep into that Arctic air mass as low pressure forms down in the central Gulf. Could we see "inches" of snow? Depends how far northward Gulf moisture moves, but my gut tells me YES! We could easily be down into the upper teens on the South Shore Sunday AM "IF" we have a snow cover. What a week to keep up on the weather !
Check out ICECAP.US for an interesting article by Dr. Neil Frank, former Director of NHC. At a time when much of the Northern Hemisphere is experiencing record cold and snow, Neil's comments are right on.
9 comments:
Bob are we expecting a hard freeze at the end of the week? What days specifically? I have an uptown house where I have to give instructions to my tenants. What do you recommend? I know I have to run my outside faucets, but should we run our cold water inside as well?
Do you really see this thick heavy airmass going away quick enough to where we WON'T see some type of wintry weather on the northshore Wed Night? I think the GFS may be eroding this airmass too quickly?? I have a sneaky feeling there could be a mess wed night/ early thurs morning in the Baton Rouge/Hammond area with some "surprise" icy/snowy weather before it changes to rain before the REAL cold air comes... Whatcha think about that, Bob?
so is the southshore gonna see any snow or is it all gonne be on the northshore?
No snow on southshore?
ONLY REAL...
I have been following your blogs and you seem to be very informed. What do you think about Metairie weather for not only late Wednesday night into early Thursday, but your thoughts on Bob's idea of winter precipitation on Saturday...No other weather channels are predicting that..they all say sunny on Saturday....
ONLY REAL:
I enjoy your blogs and you seem to be very informed. Tell me, do you think Metairie will get any type of winter precipitation on late Wed into early Thursday? Also, what about Bob's comments about possible snow on Saturday...???
He is the ONLY one that is forecasting that...everyone else says sunny day on Saturday...How about your thoughts?
Hi Nashette, I'm sorry I wasn't able to reply immediately. I was busy as school and I couldn't access Bob’s blog to answer your questions.
I see you are very interested in my thoughts for the upcoming days, and I am sure you aren't the only one. There are lots that is going to happen and even more that could happen if certain things play out. The main theme for the next several days is that it’s going to be bitterly cold.
The first question is how much will this dense arctic air-mass that is in place modify over the next 36 hours and will be cold enough when the precipitation arrives in the wee hours of Thursday Morning? Now I have been pondering this question in my head for a few days now. All the computer models want to erode this arctic air mass a good bit over the next 36 hours. They want to put the Sub-Tropical Jet stream back into active mode which would warm up the atmosphere above freezing before the precipitation arrives. I do think they could be eroding this cold air a little too quickly, but not quick enough. It would only take a little bit of Warm Air Advection to destroy our chances for frozen precipitation on Thursday since the warmer air is as close as southern Texas. Now initially when the first couple of showers arrive early Thursday morning temperatures will be in the middle to upper-30's across SE Louisiana so maybe there could be some Flurries and sleet pellets before the WAA takes hold and changes the precipitation to all rain, especially on the Northshore. Even though it won't be cold enough for snow on the Southshore during the day Thursday it will be miserable because temperatures will stay in the 40's throughout the day. All the models also want to take the moisture out of the area before the sufficiently cold air for snow arrives. But keep in mind that if they are even only 3 hours fast with the precipitation or 3 hours slow with that cold air we could end up with a decent round of wintry precipitation, even on the Southshore. Another issue will be icing. I am concerned that some of that rain water could freeze on the roads Thursday night and cause hazardous driving conditions on Friday morning.
Friday Night/Saturday Morning is going to be very interesting. A second shortwave trough that is embedded in the NW flow will dive out of Canada into the Deep South. This piece of energy could trigger the development of a second Gulf low. With the polar air mass that will already be in place any precipitation that falls from out of the sky would be snow. It’s crucial though that that shortwave is positively tilted so we can get some moisture in the 700H-925H layers. What’s encouraging is that the GGEM model has remained consistent and that other models/ensembles are trending towards the moisture needed for snow on Friday Night/Saturday Morning. So the chances are definitely going up for that to occur. We need to keep a close eye on the models over the next few days to see if this Saturday snow scenario can come to fruitation. I sure hope Bob sticks with his forecast for the snow Friday Night/Saturday morning because there is a growing legitimate possibility of it happening.
I hope this helps you put Nashette,
-ONLYREAL
Geez Bob...ya gotta love OnlyReal, not only does he give you a detailed forecast, but he writes very well and just down right interesting....entertaining I might add. He is an asset to this blog.
Kind of glad this cold weather is happening now...I don't know what the long range forecast is, but I don't think the parade crowds wouldn't be as large if this kind of weather presists into Mardi Gras.
Let see December too wet and January was too cold, lets hope February is just right....
Now can we sing, Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow after Christmas???
Your awesome Bourbon! I really appreciate the compliments.
The GFS wants to change the pattern were currently in next week. It says get the shorts and flip flops. LOL
The ensembles want to strengthen the AO a bit for Mid-January but still keeps it negative, just not rock bottom negative. Then they want to bring it back to rock bottom for Mardi Gras/Superbowl time. So maybe it will be cold for that period of time. Maybe it will snow the day the Saints win the big show(I am superstitious with the Saints and don't want to jinx us by saying the S word in the same sentence as the Saints).
Hey Bob! Do you think this Arctic Outbreak counts as "Hell freezing over"? If you know what I mean. ;)
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