Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Several Hard Freezes...
Yikes! Way too cold for me. Looking at tonight's VIPIR run...NO signs of a "wintry mix" that NWS is talking about north of I-12. Just think we'll warm into the 50s Thursday AM and by the time freezing temps return, all moisture will be long gone. VIPIR drives the front way down into the Gulf with NO signs of any moisture coming back up over the cold air on Saturday. I still think that is a slim possibility. Bottom line is another even colder blast of Arctic air arrives for this weekend. NWS says this will be the coldest we've seen since Feb. 1996 when MSY dropped to 16 on Feb. 5th. Will need to run that pencil stream of water so pipes don't freeze. Stay tuned. Kind of funny watching the reporters shiver down at the Orange Bowl tonight.
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4 comments:
Thanks ONLY REAL for your detailed scenario on the possibilities for the coming days. I agree with BURBON, you are quite entertaining and very well informed. A definite asset to this blog. Again, I would love to see snow, but not on a weekday when everyone has to hit the streets to go to work. Saturday morning would be perfect!!! Have a great day everyone...
Nashette
Bob:
As always, you are my MAIN weather informant. Your information is usually right on the money and I depend on reliable information daily to travel to work, etc. Thanks for being there for us New Orleanians for so many years. It is good to know we have the # 1 weather personality.
P.S. Now, can you send us a bit snow for the weekend? HA
Nashette
Kind of admit, its different having this bitter cold air in place. It nice having to put our heavy coats to use for a change...that I actually seem to have to wear one...
I know we get cold during winter, but this just seems to be lasting a bit longer than our normal cold fronts usually last.
I am hoping that the weather does get back to our average temps during Mardi Gras. I ride on the upper deck in Caeser haven't yet ridden in weather this cold. Usually keeping warm is not a problem because your constantly throwing throws...Plus cold cold weather tends to make the crowds thinner.
I am thinking i will be a good thing to run my pool over the weekend...I would think PVC pipe has a shot of breaking, I am not sure.
Bob what does this bitter cold weather have on fog season...if that ever happens??? Does it make the fog thicker due to the Lake being a lot colder?
Now OnlyReal you think you are going to Jinx the Saints....nah...Black n Gold, Super bow........
Well Folks... It ain't lookin good if you want the white stuff tomorrow! RUC Model soundings indicate that Warm air is advecting into the area. Temperatures at H700-H850 (The area in the Troposphere where snow forms) are around 50F. Ergo, we have no shot for any kind of wintry mix late tonight or tomorrow morning when the precipitation begins to fall. This is really frustrating because I really enjoy the wintry precipitation, even if it’s only a few flurries.
Tomorrow morning a surface cyclonic wave will move through the northern Gulf of Mexico bringing us a cold rain. It will be a very nasty cold rain at that, temperatures will be around 50F on the SS and in the 40's on the NS before the front passes through. Tomorrow will be a good day to stay home and enjoy some warm, creamy hot chocolate if you have nowhere to go. Winds will be out of the South till around noon when the Arctic front passes through. Significant cold air advection will take place as soon as that polar front passes through. Temperatures could be flirting with freezing on the SS as early as 6pm Thursday Evening; obviously it will be earlier on the NS. It will also be very windy; winds will be sustained out of the North at 25mph with gusts to 40mph tomorrow night. This will cause wind-chills to dive into the teens and then single digits on both sides of the lake. If you go outside you better be prepared because it is going to be dangerously cold. You could get frost bite if outside for an extended period of time. You know I'm going to be outside to experience the single digit wind chills. I want to have an appreciation for that kind of cold.
High temperatures will struggle to get above freezing both Friday and Saturday. I expect low to mid teens on the Northshore on both Friday and Saturday Nights. On the Southshore, I expect upper teens to low 20's.
Now I know all of you snow freaks like me are wondering about Friday Night/Saturday morning. A secondary mid-tropospheric shortwave trough that is embedded in the NW Flow on the left side of the Main Trough will dive into the Great Plains Friday evening. This shortwave has the potential to give us some flurries Friday Night/Saturday Morning. However, even though the needed Mid-Level disturbance will be here the model support for the moisture to reach us isn't great at this time. The air might simply just be too dry. Another reason is that the Low that spins up will have great difficulty getting adequately close to the coast due to the mammoth 1050MB surface ridge that will be dominating the Eastern 2/3rds of the country. I am going to say we have a 30% chance of a few flurries Friday Night/Saturday Morning. Keep in mind that my forecast could be too optimistic. Keep in mind the models showed very little to no indication in their forecasts for the flurries that fell over North Louisiana, Central and Southern Mississippi, and the North Shore on Monday. It was only in the upper 30's and really took little moisture for that to happen. The air will be much colder than Monday on Friday Night so it would take even less moisture to spit out some flurries.
-ONLYREAL
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