A fast moving cold front will bring showers and some T-Storms between midnight and 6 AM. Behind it will be a much colder air mass that will remind us it's still early February. After early morning clouds, Tuesday should turn Pt. Sunny, very breezy and quite chilly for the Saint's parade beginning at 5 PM. By Wednesday morning, freezing temperatures are likely on the North Shore with mid 30s Southshore. The big challenge comes late Thursday as another disturbance flys our way in the sub-tropical jet stream. That will trigger low pressure forming well south of the Louisiana coast. It is possible that many of us could see some of the white stuff after midnight Thursday into early on Friday. Stay tuned.
After being buried under 2+ feet of snow over the weekend, the Washington-Baltimore-Philadelphia corridor may get another 10-20" from the system coming thru us tonight. This current cold trend across much of the nation will continue for the next 10-14 days. No signs of an early Spring.
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All the rain associated with the Surface Low has moved out of the area; except for a few sprinkles remaining. The sprinkles should quickly come to an end in the next hour or two as drier air begins to advect into our area. Expect mostly clear skies by this afternoon. The temperatures for today and the extended is a story in its self. Right now it is 53F at the airport and you better enjoy it. This will be the last time we will be in the 50's until at least Saturday because once this cold front moves through, which will be soon, temperatures will fall into the 40's area wide for the rest of the day. It will also be windy so temperatures will feel like the 30's this afternoon. The good news is that the Saints parade for this afternoon will be dry, however, for obvious reasons; you will just need to wear a sweater. Tonight temperatures will plummet to around freezing on the southshore and on the northshore temperatures will fall to around 29.
Wednesday will initially be sunny as surface high pressure slides through the region. By Wednesday Afternoon high cirrus clouds will begin to fill the sky and this should limit insolation which should keep highs in the 40's on Wednesday. Wednesday Night will be cold however not as cold as tonight due to cloud cover which will act like a blanket which will prevent temperatures from falling to their maximum potential. Lows will be in the mid 30's on the southshore, around 32F on the northshore.
Thursday is when our weather could potentially become really fun. A strong piece of upper level energy embedded in the sub-Tropical Jet stream will approach our area on Thursday. This upper level disturbance will trigger surface cyclogenesis off the central Texas coastline. The surface low will begin to slide east into the central Gulf of Mexico and strengthen. Ahead of the Gulf low there will be a cold air-mass in place across the Gulf Coast states. As the low slides east, moisture will increase along the gulf coast and precipitation will begin to fall by midday Thursday. Temperatures will be in the low 40's in our area when precipitation begins to fall. I wouldn't be surprised if sleet falls initially when precipitation commences due to the wet bulb cooling effect. The sleet will likely change over to rain as the atmosphere becomes more moist on the Southshore by late Thursday afternoon. The cold rain will continue into Thursday Night on the Southshore, while on the Northshore there should be a rain snow mix, and probably all snow North of the I-12. After midnight, we could see the rain/snow line shift south to where the Southshore gets in on some of the white stuff, especially once the surface low passes our longitude. 3 out of the 5 models that I look at that go out to this time frame show this scenario occurring. This event is still 48-72 hours out so there is still some uncertainty to this part of the forecast.
All forms of precipitation will exit our area by midday Friday as the Surface Low ejects to the east. This will lead to a cold but dry weekend. If you plan on going to the parades you will need a coat or Jacket as highs will be in the 40's this weekend.
-ONLYREAL
Oh No!!! As much as I would love to see some of the "white stuff" I am moving on Friday.... Of all days of the year, why now?? Do you really think we will get snow early Friday morning??? I have to go over a big overpass with a moving truck...Do you see problems with this move, cause I sure do...??
Ok BOB and ONLY REAL....needing a reliable forecast as I am moving (in Metairie) on Friday morning.... Do you think we will have any wintery precipitation to deal with? I have to climb 2 flights of stairs and am worried about icy surfaces. I see the Futurecast has snow moving in from the West....Lafayette will be getting snow by 5..... so.... how far south of I-10 will it snow, if at all? Sorry about all the questions but I really do need to plan ahead...
Thanks for your time...
Change your moving day Nashette. Rain late Thursday PROBABLY becoming mixed with and/or turning to snow even on the SouthShore. Might stay all rain, but I'd put that at 30% just rain, 40% mixed-sleet, 30% 1-2" snow.
Thanks so much Bob for your prompt answer to my questions. As usual, you are the HOST with the MOST.
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