I'm still waiting for our 1st 70 degree day in nearly a month. We remain zero for February after today's high failed to break 60. We have 2 opportunities this weekend before more cold air returns for next week. IF we see enough sunshine, both Saturday & Sunday could top 70. Another cold front arrives before dawn on Monday. SPC says we are in the slight risk area for some severe storms late Sunday into Monday with colder air filtering in behind the front. Yet another Gulf low is forecasted to bring more cold rains late Tuesday into Wednesday. Let's enjoy the warmth this weekend as it won't last very long.
Perhaps you saw a VERY SMALL mention in today's Times-Pic that the top climate change official of the IPCC resigned. Not news worthy? This was no low level flunkie. It deserved more press.
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*Severe Weather Potential for Monday*
According to the Storm Prediction Center(SPC), extreme eastern Texas, the majority of Louisiana, and southwest Mississippi have a shot for a round of Severe Weather. This is due to a Shortwave embedded in the Jet Stream that will slide through the Great Plains on Sunday/Monday which will trigger low level cyclogenesis over Oklahoma. The Surface Low will eject NE into the Ohio Valley Great Lakes region. This will put the South-Central Gulf States in the Warm Sector ahead of the Surface Low's associated Cold Front. Rich Gulf moisture combined with decent shear profiles and moderate instability will cause the development of a squall line along the Cold Front on Sunday Night. The squall line is where the greatest risk for Severe Weather will be with the main threats being Damaging straight-line winds and large hail. The Cold Front and associated squall line is currently forecasted to slide through the area Monday Morning. The cold front will sweep out the spring like weather and put us right back into winter-like weather.
-ONLYREAL
Good news! Overnight, the models trended towards a less conducive environment for Severe Weather on Monday so now it appears we may just see a few strong Thunderstorms embedded in the squall line at worst when it rolls through.
-ONLYREAL
Trying to copy and paste a story from Icecap:
Feb 17, 2010
Consistent with Being in a Deep Fog
Roger Pielke Jr. Blog
National Geographic reports yesterday:
“Declining fog cover on California’s coast could leave the state’s famous redwoods high and dry, a new study says. Among the tallest and longest-lived trees on Earth, redwoods depend on summertime’s moisture-rich fog to replenish their water reserves. But climate change may be reducing this crucial fog cover. Though still poorly understood, climate change may be contributing to a decline in a high-pressure climatic system that usually “pinches itself” against the coast, creating fog, said study co-author James Johnstone, an environmental scientist at the University of California, Berkeley.
Last summer the San Francisco Chronicle carried a story about research on fog and climate with a different conclusion:
The Bay Area just had its foggiest May in 50 years. And thanks to global warming, it’s about to get even foggier. That’s the conclusion of several state researchers, whose soon-to-be-published study predicts that even with average temperatures on the rise, the mercury won’t be soaring everywhere. “There’ll be winners and losers,” says Robert Bornstein, a meteorology professor at San Jose State University. “Global warming is warming the interior part of California, but it leads to a reverse reaction of more fog along the coast.” The study, which will appear in the journal Climate, is the latest to argue that colder summers are indeed in store for parts of the Bay Area.
More fog is consistent with predictions of climate change. Less fog is consistent with predictions of climate change. I wonder if the same amount of fog is also “consistent with” such predictions? I bet so.
What a bunch of fools!!!!!!!!
Hey Onlyreal...how far south will the rain/snow line be on this next southern storm?
Greg,
The rain/snow line will be at the Louisiana/Mississippi border at best. It should be the same old scenario that we have seen this whole winter where the moisture moves out just as the sufficiently cold air for snow advects into the area. The models have trended slower with the shortwave which means the moisture with the associated surface low will advect East, ahead of the shortwave so that heights will be too high for snow. Wednesday look pretty chilly, highs will have a hard time getting out of the 40's. Eventually we should begin to see the higher sun angle begin to work its magic on us. Once spring begins to establish itself we should see the Severe Weather side of this El Nino Pattern. Get ready because of this active pattern we are in its gonna be rough.
-ONLYREAL
Gee I was more worried about the Redwoods....So does this mean they will die off if this fog doesn't develop? Does rain help, Lord knows California has had her fair share of rain this year.
Thanks OnlyReal for your forecast, always nice to read. I still can't quite believe how cold its been this month. NOOO!! I am not complaining, I know warmer weather is only time away. But to have such a long stretch of cold weather seems so uncommon for this area...not to mention more than just once this winter season, its been quite nice.
I just remember El Nino's in past winter seasons the weather was always warm because we had the presistent SW flow that prevented any cold weather from getting through. So this is quite a change. And for the LA to get snow more than once this season...is amazing...I know so close to New Orleans but so far away....still nice to know someone close got it.
Just goes to show you how climate change affects El Nino's when we are in a period of warming versus cooling...
Okay I to throw this in...crazy as it seems...but how many of you rewatch the Divisional Championship and Superbowl game just to see the winning field goal and interception? I tell you no matter how many times I watch it...that same victorious feeling comes over me...its quite amazing....Winning is everything!
Question...How long does a typical El Nino last?
I figured it might get close. Since I have not seen any snow this year I might "go north". I figured we only had a week or two left for any real shot at snow this year. I also figured we would have a pretty wild spring with the el nino pattern...Thanks again!
Rajendra K. Pachauri ?
Bourbon,
Thanks for the compliments! Always appriciated! :)
All El Nino is, is anomalously higher Sea Surface Temperatures along the Equatorial Pacific on the American side. El Nino usually has a distinct impact on the worlds weather. Obviously, the stronger the El Nino the more distinct its effects are on the world weather. El Nino usually only lasts for around ~6-18 Months. The majority of the models want to weaken El Nino to at least a Neutral State(SST's near normal in the Equatorial Pacific) by the time Hurricane Season rolls around(BAD). But its too early to speculate what will happen between now and Hurricane Season.
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