Thursday, March 18, 2010
Next Severe Threat?
With a beautiful Friday coming and Saturday feeling Spring-like(Spring begins at 12:32 CDT), one will not be thinking about severe weather. But alas, I must tell you that SPC has placed us in a "slight risk" zone for Saturday night (after dark) into early on Sunday. A strong cold front will be the trigger so pay attention late Saturday for some heavy T-Storms. Get ready for quite a temperature ride...Friday 71...Sat. 73...Sunday 54 !!! No mistake, and that includes strong north wonds making it feel even colder. So enjoy Friday & most of Saturday. Sunday will be difficult to stay outside, but a warm up starts Monday PM and continues into Thursday when yet another strong front will plow through. The sub-tropical jet stream shows no signs of relaxing much during the next 10-14 days. Will we ever see 80 this March?
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6 comments:
I want off this temperature roller coaster, no wonder people are getting sick. I prefer the nice cool weather not the cold that is coming.
Well, I guess I'll light a fire Saturday night and bundle up and wait for, hopefully, the last cold front of the winter...At least the last one that will bring us down into the lower 40's. Saturday looks to be perfect before the rain arrives late... Sunday will be a "bundle up" affair if you are hitting the parade!
Today will be fantastic. Expect sunny skies and light winds as the center of the High Pressure system slides though the area. After a cool start this morning, temperatures will quickly jump into the upper 60’s to low 70’s across the area this afternoon. Tonight, the center of the High Pressure system will slide east of the area and this will cause winds to shift to the Southeast. The Southerly winds should keep everyone’s temperatures in check, lows will probably be 7-10F warmer than last night.
The majority of Saturday should start off nice, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 60’s. Saturday Afternoon the sky will become mostly cloudy and a light afternoon shower will be possible, especially if you live a little to the west of the city. Highs on Saturday will be similar to today, upper 60’s to low 70’s, and however, it will feel a bit more humid so it will not feel as comfortable.
On Saturday Night a strengthening Upper Level Low will slide just north of the area. At the Surface a surface low will rapidly develop over east Texas and will quickly eject North West into North Louisiana and on into the Ohio River Valley. As the surface low slides northwestward and intensifies, it will send a strong cold front towards our area and with this cold front will come the chance for some strong to severe thunderstorms. The severe weather parameters aren’t that great and are marginal at best, but the chance is there. The best chance for severe weather will be right along the Cold Front which is where the best forcing will be. There will be plenty of cold air aloft; however, instability doesn’t look impressive so only a thunderstorm or two may be able to get a strong enough updraft to produce hail. The main threat will be strong winds associated with the Squall Line that will develop along the Cold Front. The timing for the Squall Line to move through is 11PM Saturday Night- 6AM Sunday Morning.
Once the cold front moves through Sunday Morning, temperatures will quickly fall from the 60’s and 70’s into the 40’s and 50’s. But it may feel even colder because winds will be out of the NW at 20-30mpg with higher gusts and we should stay mostly cloudy on Sunday. Temperatures will likely fall into the 30’s on the North shore and 40’s on the South shore on Sunday Night.
After another cool day on Monday, a quick warm-up will begin starting on Tuesday as the East Coast Trough lifts out and as ridging builds into the area. By Wednesday, Highs will likely reach the mid to upper 70’s! And this warmth will continue into the end of the work week before our next weather maker moves in.
-ONLYREAL
Just read in our global warming supporting newspaper. (hmmm notice I mention no names!) That the average temp this winter was 50.5 degrees compared to a typical winter of 54.3 a little less than 4 degrees cooler than our typical winter.
I just wonder how they calculate the average...do they take the temp at every minute/hour for 3 months to get this average...because it sure felt like it was colder than just 4 degrees below our typical winter?
They reported the highest temp was set a few days ago on March 10th at 76 and the coldest day was 23 on Jan 9th.
So Bob what do your records show to see if they coincide with the papers.
Looking forward to this weekends cold blast, it may be the last coldest weather we'll see till next winter. Enjoy!!!
I LOVE cold weather and Spring only depresses me because the unrelenting heat of summer is coming. High utility bills, oppressive humidity, no break- just months of it + hurricane season. UGH!
Please, Bob- remember that some people actually like the cool, pleasant( even cold) weather. Not all of us look forward to a brutal summer.
Tomorrow sounds like MY kind of weather- great for the Irish-Italian parade too- brisk!
Yo Bourbon...what you describe is a classic example of how figures/"facts" can be misleading. It depends on when you take the time period. "Meteorological Winter" (Dec-Feb) was the 5th coldest on record here. What the paper had was "Atronomical winter". If you remember we did warm up a bit once we got into March. More noticeable though is by leaving out the 1st 3 weeks in December (the wettest month ever!) it came up as a below normal/average winter in terms of precipitation.
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