Yikes! 1st the Iceland Volcano erupts, then the Gulf oil rig explosion and leak and now a hurricane season worse than 2005? C'mon Gang, let's get a grip. We have to deal with the Hurricane Season for 6 months of the year. Why do some folks want us to be scared for yet another month? Sure all the ingredients are shaping up for an active season, but what does it matter? We have to be preparded to act even if it's a slow season. So why create a new crisis when we already have enough on our plate? Let's deal with the hurricane season when it gets here. Right now my focus is on the movement of the oil leak.
Winds have already returned to the south and will increase by thursday PM into Friday. that will make offshore condition difficult as seas will rise above 4' by Sat. morning. A cool front will arrive by daybreak Sat turning winds back to the NNE. Mother's Day looks nice right now as long as the front pushes off the coast.
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I somehow finished the mountain of homework I was given tonight. Anyway, here are my thoughts on this upcoming Hurricane Season 2010. If anyone has any questions I will be more than happy to answer them.
My 2010 Outlook...
Current conditions and computer model forecasts suggest a very high amount of named storms for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season shattering the average record. The concentration of heat in the MDR at this time surpasses that of 2005 and is the warmest ever recorded since satellites began measuring in 1985. This is because of a strong negative NAO that lasted all winter which resulted in below average trade wind speeds across the tropical Atlantic.
Current conditions and guidance shows a continued collapse of El Nino with neutral conditions before the start of Hurricane Season and possibly working its way into weak La Nina conditions by the peak of Hurricane Season. The Models show above average Sea-Surface temperatures continuing in the MDR with the maximum heat building in the Caribbean and spreading into the Gulf Of Mexico by August. Wind shear forecasts from the CFS show shear being below average in the Tropical Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico throughout Hurricane Season indicating the development of a upper level sub-equatorial ridge. The UKMET(GLOSEA) Model and other guidance develops blocking over SE Canada during the peak months of Hurricane Season suggesting a continuation of a negative NAO(North Atlantic Oscillation).
This Hurricane Season will likely start early and end late, and will be far more dangerous for everyone compared to last year. The area's at highest risk for landfalls this season will be South Florida, The entire Gulf Coast west of Pensacola, and all the Islands in the Caribbean Sea including the Yucatan Peninsula. It should be noted that a quicker transition to stronger La Nina than expected would shift the greatest risk for a Major Hurricane landfall to the Caribbean only, similar to 2007. Additionally, the numbers in my outlook may not be high enough if we get really active in July like in 2005. At this time there really aren't any negative parameters that would dampen the potential total numbers of named storms this Hurricane Season. All I can say is prepare now and not later because that's all we can do.
The Numbers:
19 Named Storms
11 Hurricanes
7 Major Hurricanes
-ONLYREAL
To be on the positive side, in 1933, which had 21 named storms(2nd most active season on record), not one storm hit Louisiana. They all stayed to our South and to our East.
Well, as I said yesterday, I certainly don't want Louisiana to get any hurricanes but I have a cruise planned for the end of August to Cozumel and don't want to see any hurricanes ravage Yucatan either!!! By late August who knows how many storms may have hit or brushed the Yucatan! Just have to keep praying and as Bob and Only Real continue to say, BE PREPARED!
Good to see you got through your mountain of homework...I bet you are looking forward to school letting out for the summer. Enjoyed reading your thoughts on this Hurricane season as well.
One positive is Hurricane Season hasn't started yet and we should enjoy this time before we have to start thinking about looking at the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf.
So does this blocking you suggest in Canada help or hurt us? The blocking sounds good but if storms ride along the edge of high pressure, something tells me it might bring more storms in the Gulf.
Seems if the La Nina develops as you say, it also might be good for our area.
Nashette, best wishes on a safe and hurricane free trip to Cozumel. There is always a risk of a storm when planning a trip like that... One should think with the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf so huge, what are the chances a storm being in that area at that time???...just be prepared.
Meanwhile my pool is looking good, and waiting for it to warm up, so I can go swimming...and I think that will be my extent of seeing the beach this summer.
I agree. The tone of the discussion seems almost to be "the bad one is coming and it's bearing down right on us" -- and this is just May. Is this providing information and a public service or is it something else?
Anyone who wants to spread their own amateur dire predictions (and especially now when it isn't even June yet) should use a disclaimer that makes it clear that this is their own private "for fun" forecast only and not to be considered in making actual important decisions and also disclose their track record of past predictions having been on the mark or not.
One almost senses a certain giddiness among certain people over the prospect of an active hurricane season as well as a disappointment with the fact of the last one having been a quiet one and that shouldn't be the idea at all.
Having said that, of course, I am always interested in being as well informed as I can be.
The question is what is the basis of predicting that the central and western gulf coast is likely to be a hurricane landfall location?
I have no problem granting that every year does see certain trends develop, e.g. 2004 and four storms hitting south Florida.
What pattern as far as steering currents will emerge in 2010 and why?
Hundred Oaks,
The well define Atlantic Tripole is a good indicator of a stronger Bermuda High thus more westward tracks.
Thanks for the response, however that leads to another question. We can accurately predict now exactly where and how strong the Bermuda High will be? This information is already pretty well known?
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